Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KLIX 031657
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1157 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THOUGH SOME
CUMULUS CLOUDS WERE DEVELOPING IN STREAKS GENERALLY BASED AROUND
3500FT. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VSBY AT A FEW
LOCATIONS WITH RADIATIONAL FOG FORMATION GENERALLY TOWARDS
DAYBREAK THROUGH ABOUT 1430Z. SHORT-RANGE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
DO INDICATE SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON THAT WILL
BE OMITTED FROM TAFS...BUT MAY BE ENCOUNTERED AROUND THE AREA
IN-FLIGHT. 24/RR

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 800 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015/

..SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

A DRY AND STABLE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS LARGELY IN PLACE OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST TODAY. ANOTHER STOUT TEMPERATURE INVERSION
EXISTS FROM THE SURFACE TO 700 FEET WITH AN ELEVATED INVERSION
FROM 8100 TO 9500 FEET. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE REMAINS WELL
BELOW NORMAL AROUND 0.75 INCHES. WINDS ARE UNDER 20 KNOTS UNTIL
ABOUT 38500 FEET AND A PEAK WIND SPEED OF 42 KNOTS AT 50000 FEET.

12Z BALLOON INFO: NO ISSUES WITH THE FLIGHT THAT LASTED 112
MINUTES THIS MORNING. THE BALLOON ASCENDED TO A HEIGHT OF 21.1
MILES ABOVE THE GROUND BURSTING OVER BAY ST. LOUIS 31 MILES
DOWNRANGE FROM THE OFFICE.

ANSORGE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015/

SHORT TERM... FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY WITH WEAK
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE AND SURFACE HIGH CENTERED TO THE EAST
OVER THE SERN CONUS. THE PLACEMENT OF THE SFC RIDGE...NOW TO THE
EAST HAS ALLOWED FOR WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHEAST AND GRADUALLY
BRINGING UP DEWPOINTS. THERE IS A LOW END CHANCE FOR A SPOTTY SHOWER
OR 2 TO DEVELOP TODAY BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A STRONG CAP IN PLACE
SHOULD KEEP COVERAGE LOW ENOUGH TO NOT WARRANT ANY MENTION OF RAIN
IN THE FORECAST.

THIS WILL NOT BE THE CASE AS MUCH GOING INTO MONDAY AS A NORTHERN
CLIPPER TROUGH WEAKENS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF SOUTH.
INCREASING SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL BRING MORE MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AT
THIS TIME AS WELL. MODEL SOUNDING THEN INDICATES PWAT INCREASING
ALONG WITH COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPS. THIS WILL REMOVE CIN AND
INSTABILITY WILL BE ALLOWED TO BE REALIZED. THE FORECAST POPS REMAIN
SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS WITH 20 TO 30 PERCENT COVERAGE EXPECTED.

MEFFER

LONG TERM... UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN BEGIN BUILDING FROM THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FROM
TUESDAY ONWARD. RAIN CHANCES...NOT HIGH TO BEGIN WITH...WILL FADE TO
ISOLATED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW THIS TREND WITH MID 80 HIGHS BECOMING
BETTER ESTABLISHED.

MEFFER

MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST AND BECOME CNTRD
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TOMORROW MORNING. ON SHORE IS ALREADY
SETTING BACK UP AND WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LGT
WINDS TODAY WILL INCREASE TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT AS A SFC LOW
OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS AND THE RIDGE IN THE ATLANTIC TIGHTEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT. WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO 15-20KTS WITH SEAS
UP TO 6 FT. BY LATE MON. /CAB/

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE MOST PART. THERE WILL BE
SOME LIGHT FOG AT THE USUAL PROBLEM SITES AND VSBYS COULD LEAD TO
TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS BUT AS SOON AS THE SUN COMES UP VFR STATUS WILL
DOMINATE. /CAB/

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  81  58  81  61 /   0   0  20  10
BTR  82  59  82  63 /  10  10  30  10
ASD  77  62  79  64 /  10  10  20  10
MSY  78  65  79  68 /  10  20  30  10
GPT  77  64  79  65 /  10  10  10  10
PQL  78  62  81  63 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.