Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 060732
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
332 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM OFFSHORE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM NEAR THE BAHAMAS BY WEDNESDAY
THEN DRIFT NORTH AND LINGER OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1230 AM WED...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMP AND DEW PT
TRENDS REST OF NIGHT...NO OTHER CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 900 PM TUE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL RIDGE WEST INTO THE CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT
WITH LIGHT WINDS BUT RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE SLIGHTLY LIMITED
BY DEBRIS HIGH CLOUDINESS FROM AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER
VICINITY OF THE BAHAMAS STREAMING NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN NC.
CONTINUE PREV THINKING WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM THE LWR TO
MID 50S INLAND AND AROUND 60 ON THE COAST. CONDITIONS LOOK A
LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR GROUND FOG OVERNIGHT WITH BETTER
HYDROLAPSES AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES. DOESN`T LOOK LIKE IT
WILL BE EXTENSIVE THOUGH SO WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE OUT OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 142 PM TUE...RIDGE ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...WHILE AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE PINCHED
AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE FLORIDA COAST. DRY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA ALLOWING HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 80S AWAY FROM THE WATERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WED...MAIN FEATURE THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE A
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS CURRENTLY STRENGTHENING NEAR
THE BAHAMAS OFF THE FL COAST.

00Z MODELS IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT SHOWING LOW PRESSURE
STRENGTHENING OFF THE SE COAST AS IT MOVES NNW THU...APPROACHING
THE CAROLINAS. UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
SETTING UP A REX BLOCKING PATTERN WITH LITTLE UPPER LEVEL STEERING
FLOW...WHICH WILL ALLOW LOW TO LIKELY SLOW AND STALL OFF THE SE
COAST INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND. INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THU...WITH
BEST CHANCES ALONG THE SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS...THEN PRECIP
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD FRI. WILL CONTINUE TO CAP POPS
AT HIGH CHANCE FOR NOW...WITH SC MENTION OF TSTMS. MODELS SHOW
THE LOW LINGERING OFF THE SE COAST SAT AND SUN...BEFORE LIKELY
WEAKENING AND MOVING ALONG THE NC COAST LATE SUN AND MON...THEN
FINALLY PUSHING NNE MON NIGHT AND TUE. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS
WITH SC TSTMS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH BEST PRECIP
CHANCES TOUGH TO PIN DOWN AT THIS TIME.

AT THIS TIME THE MAIN IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE LIMITED TO
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE COAST AND ROUGH
SURF/HIGHER THREAT OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS. THOUGH ADDITIONAL
IMPACTS COULD BE FELT ACROSS EASTERN NC IF TRACK AND/OR STRENGTH
CHANGES.

GRADUAL WARM UP THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
VALUES SUPPORTING THE WARMEST TEMPS MON AND TUE WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 80S INLAND AND UPPER 70S/LOW 80S ALONG THE COAST.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AS LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA...LIKELY
PUSHING THROUGH LATE TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED. SHOULD START TO DRY OUT
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WITH NWLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
AS OF 140 AM WEDNESDAY...HIGH CLOUDINESS FROM LOW PRES DEVELOPING
NEAR BAHAMAS HAS SPREAD OVER AREA AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH TAF
PERIOD WITH LITTLE IF ANY LOW OR MID CLOUDS DEVELOPING. GDNC
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT PERIOD OF LIGHT FOG INLAND AREAS 09Z-12Z EVEN
WITH HIGH CLOUDS...THUS STICKING WITH PREVIOUS FCST OF MVFR VSBYS
THAT PERIOD ALL TAF SITES. VFR EXPECTED REST OF PERIOD WITH SE
WINDS AROUND 10 KT DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WED...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE MUCH
OF THE PERIOD AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH
THU INTO THE WEEKEND. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE THU...BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD FRI AND SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM WED...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 900 PM TUE...ATLANTIC HIGH HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE MARINE CONDITIONS OVER THE
NC COASTAL WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH S-SE WINDS MAINLY 10 KT
OR LESS AND SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WED...MAIN FEATURE THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE A
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS CURRENTLY STRENGTHENING NEAR
THE BAHAMAS OFF THE FL COAST. 00Z MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS...AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY.
LOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE NNW THU...THEN SLOW/STALL OFF
THE SE COAST INTO THE WEEKEND. LOW THEN EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND
MOVE ALONG THE COAST LATE SUN AND MON.

CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE THU...ESP SOUTH OF OREGON
INLET. WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST E/NE WINDS 10-20KT THU...THEN
E/SE 10-20KT FRI AND SAT...BECOMING SSE SUN. EXPECT TIGHTER
GRADIENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS...SO THERE WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER WINDS 20-30KT...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW
AT THIS TIME AND WILL DEPEND ON TRACK AND STRENGTH OF LOW. SCA
WILL START OFF THE PERIOD THU AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. NWPS
AND WAVEWATCH HAVE SEAS BUILDING TO 5 TO 9 FEET SOUTH OF OREGON
INLET AND 3 TO 5 FEET NORTH.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JAC/JME/JBM
SHORT TERM...CCG
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...JBM/CQD
MARINE...JAC/JME/JBM/CQD



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