Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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000
FXUS62 KMLB 060001
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
8 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...INVERTED TROUGH TO OUR SOUTHEAST LIFTS NORTH OVERNIGHT WITH LOW
PRESSURE CENTER LIKELY TO FORM ALONG IT...

...POOR BOATING CONDITIONS WITH HAZARDOUS/SEAS SURF AND AN ELEVATED
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...

...MINOR BEACH EROSION POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HIGH TIDES...

CURRENT-OVERNIGHT...UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER FLORIDA DRIFTING NORTH
NORTHEAST. IR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
SOUTH TO NORTH. AT THE SURFACE...THE INVERTED TROUGHING OVER THE
BAHAMA ISLANDS OPENS UP MORE AS IT LIFTS NORTHWARD. NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS REMAIN BRISK DUE TO A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH
AND THE INVERTED TROUGHING OVER THE BAHAMA ISLANDS SLOWLY LIFTING
NORTH. RADARS DETECTING AREAS OF SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED STORM OR
TWO MOVING EAST TO WEST FROM THE ATLANTIC ONTO THE MAINLAND COASTAL
AREAS. ONSHORE WINDS WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER
60S AWAY FROM THE COAST AND THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S AT THE COAST
AND BEACHSIDE COMMUNITIES.

THE EVENING UPDATE WILL SMOOTH OUT WEATHER ELEMENT TRANSITIONS.

.AVIATION...RADAR LOOP SHOWING EAST WEST MOVING SHOWERS OVER THE
ATLANTIC TAKING AIM AT THE COASTAL AREAS CAPE CANAVERAL NORTH. THE
DEPTH OF THE EAST TO NORTHEAST DEEP ENOUGH AND STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH
THE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORM OR TWO WELL INLAND. TEMPO MVFR
IN AND NEAR ANY SHOWERS AND OR STORM OVERNIGHT.

.MARINE...EAST WINDS BACK TO THE NORTHEAST AND NORTH OVERNIGHT AS
THE INVERTED TROUGH LIFTS SLOWLY NORTH NORTHEAST. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER FLORIDA AND THE INVERTED TROUGH
OVER THE BAHAMA ISLANDS REMAINS STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP WINDS AROUND
20 KNOTS OFFSHORE AND 15 TO 20 KNOTS NEARSHORE OVERNIGHT. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES PLANNED TO THE OVERNIGHT COASTAL WATERS FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

CURRENT-TONIGHT...INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE BAHAMAS WITH ASSOCIATED
WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT INTO TONIGHT WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD
OVERNIGHT. INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH...THE MOST RECENT GFS MODEL RUN
TAKES THIS LOW PRESSURE CLOSER TOWARD THE EAST COAST THAN EARLIER
RUNS. WEAK MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST GULF
AND SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA WILL ALSO LIFT NNE`WARD OVERNIGHT. AS THE
SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTH CURRENT E/ENE WINDS WILL BACK TO
NE/NNE...THEN EVENTUALLY BECOMING NORTHERLY BY SUNRISE WED MORNING.

DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT THOUGH THE
GRADIENT WILL BE FAIRLY TIGHT WITH HIGHEST VALUES 1.70-1.90 INCHES
ALONG THE SPACE/TREASURE COASTS. FOR OBVIOUS REASONS WILL KEEP
HIGHEST POPS HERE AS WELL...40-50 PERCENT...TAPERING BACK TO 20
PERCENT FURTHER INLAND/NORTH. WILL KEEP A SMALL MENTION OF ISOLD
THUNDER ALONG THE ST. LUCIE/MARTIN COASTS. FUTURE SHIFTS WILL NEED
TO MONITOR TREND FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IF ANY BANDING SETS UP WITH
ONSHORE MOVING SHOWERS. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE M/U 60S WITH A
FEW LOCATIONS ALONG THE COAST AROUND 70 DEGREES WHERE ONSHORE FLOW
CAN PERSIST.

WED...UPPER TROUGHING AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH/SURFACE LOW WILL ALL
CONTINUE A SLOW DRIFT NORTHWARD. SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BACK
TO THE NW/NNE ACROSS THE AREA. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE A LITTLE LESS
THAN ON TUE. WILL KEEP 40 PERCENT POPS ALONG OUR EAST COAST TAPERING
DOWN TO 20 PERCENT ACROSS THE WESTERNMOST REACHES OF OUR COVERAGE
WARNING AREA. WILL NOT RULE OUT ISOLD THUNDER AGAIN...BUT MAINLY
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR. HIGHS L80S ALONG THE COAST AND
M80S FOR THE INTERIOR.

WED NIGHT...AS ONE MIGHT EXPECT AS THE EVENT DRAWS CLOSER...THERE IS
SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MAIN MODEL GUIDANCE. CONSENSUS
HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE MORE MORE WWD SOLUTIONS (12Z GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN RUNNING CONSISTENTLY WEST OF THE 00Z SOLUTIONS). SFC LOW IS
PROGGED TO MOVE GENERALLY NWD TO ABOUT 31N BY SUNRISE WED...WITH THE
CENTER LIKELY WITHIN A DEGREE EITHER SIDE OF 78W...OR ABOUT 120-150
MILES OFFSHORE THE FLORIDA EAST COAST AT ITS CPA. AS THE CENTER GETS
NORTH OF THE ECFL COAST...NE-N FLOW ON THE LOW`S BACKSIDE WILL BACK
FURTHER TO NW (PSBLY WNW) WITH DRIER AIR WORKING BACK INTO THE AREA.
WILL KEEP LOW SHOWER CHANCES ALONG THE COAST AND ACROSS SRN SECTIONS
MAINLY IN THE EVENING. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

THU...MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW TO FORWARD SPEED OF THE LOW DOWN AS IT
DRIFTS N TOWARD THE SC/NC COAST. SLACKENING N-NW SFC FLOW WILL GIVE
WAY TO NE WINDS IN COASTAL SEA BREEZE CIRC WITH DEEPEST MOISTURE
LINGERING ACROSS THE SRN HALF CWA. NUDGED POPS UP TO SCT THERE...AND
KEPT ISOLATED TO THE NORTH. ISOLD TS COVERAGE ALL AREAS.  MAXES IN
THE L-M80S COASTAL AND U80S INLAND.

FRI-SUN (MODIFIED PREV)...12Z GFS CONTINUES TO RETROGRADE THE SFC
LOW WWD ACROSS SC INTO THIS WEEKEND WHILE THE ECM TAKES IT MORE
SLOWLY NWD WITH A LANDFALL AND THEN A STALL/SLIGHT WWD HITCH IN
DOWNEAST NC NEAR THE SC BORDER. THIS IS A DEFINITIVE TREND TWD THE
GFS...WHICH HAS TRENDED EVER SO SLIGHTLY EAST. GFS PROGS SOME
MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO NRN CSTL SECTIONS FRIDAY POSSIBLY WITH SOME
SHOWERS. SOLUTIONS NOW KEEP WRAPAROUND MOISTURE OFFSHORE THE NERN
CWA...AND AS SUCH HAVE KEPT POPS OUT OF THE FCST UNTIL SUN...WHEN
THERE WE COULD SEE A VERY ISOLD DIURNAL/TS SHRA POP IN THE AFTN.

HIGHS WARM TO THE M80S COASTAL AND U80S FOR THE INTERIOR. A NERLY
SWELL WILL KEEP THE RISK FOR RIP CURRENT ELEVATED AT THE BEACHES.

MON-TUE...WEAKENING LOW NEAR/OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL FINALLY GET
KICKED OUT TO THE NE AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY ERODES AND BREAKS DOWN
THE ERN CONUS//WRN ATLC BLOCKING RIDGE. LOW LEVEL RIDGE BUILD IN
WWD INTO FL UNDERNEATH THE DEPARTING LOW WITH SE-SRLY FLOW LEADING
TO INCREASING MOISTURE/ISOLD DIURNAL CONVECTION POSSIBLE. MAXES M-
U80S ALONG THE COAST AND AROUND 90 INLAND...MINS IN THE U60S TO NEAR
70S INLAND AND L70S ALONG THE SPACE/TREASURE COASTS.

&&

.AVIATION...E/ENE WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING...STILL REMAINING
A BIT HIGHER ALONG THE COAST. WIND DIRECTION WILL BACK TO NNE/N BY
SUNRISE WED MORNING AS A SURFACE TROUGH/ASSOC LOW LIFT NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLC. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS FOR TONIGHT INTO
MUCH OF WED. HIGHEST SHOWER CHANCES NEAREST THE COAST WITH ONLY AN
ISOLD THUNDER MENTION NEAR KFPR/KSUA TONIGHT AND MAINLY SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR ON WED. TEMPO IFR/MVFR CONDS WITH SHRA/TSRA
ACTIVITY.

&&

.MARINE...CURRENT-TONIGHT...POOR TO HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. SOME RECENT MODEL RUNS BRING AN INVERTED
TROUGH/LOW PRESSURE CLOSER TOWARDS THE COAST. FOR NOW WILL HAVE
CURRENT E/ENE WINDS BACKING TO NE/NNE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE
TROUGH LIFTS NORTHWARD. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE A BIT TRICKY AND WILL
KEEP NEAR 20 KTS IN THE FORECAST OVER THE OPEN ATLC TONIGHT...THOUGH
THE GRADIENT DOES WEAKEN A BIT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS STILL GENERALLY
6-7 FT OFFSHORE/GULF STREAM WHERE AN SCA CONTINUES UNTIL 5AM/09Z.
CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS WILL CONTINUE FOR SMALL CRAFT NEAR SHORE/NORTH
OF SEBASTIAN INLET. WILL ALLOW FUTURE SHIFTS TO DECIDE ON THE FATE
OF THE SCA LATE TONIGHT.

WED...WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL LIE JUST EAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL AND OUR
LOCAL COASTAL WATERS BY DAYBREAK THIS MORNING. SUSPECT AT LEAST
CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS WILL GREET THIS NEW DAY BUT OVERALL
TRACK/STRENGTH AND LOCAL OBSERVATIONS WILL PLAY A ROLE IF AN SCA IS
STILL NECESSARY FOR A PORTION OF THE COASTAL WATERS GOING INTO THIS
DAY. N/NW WINDS...WITH THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE BRINGING THE NON-
TROPICAL LOW CLOSER...FORECAST GREATER THAN 20 KT WINDS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA...THOUGH HAVE CAPPED THESE AT 20 KTS FOR NOW. AGAIN IF
THESE WINDS ARE REALIZED IT WILL MEAN THE LOW ACTUALLY DOES MOVE
CLOSER TOWARDS THE COAST. SO LOWER CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEEDS ON THIS
DAY AT PRESENT. WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE LESS NEAR THE EAST COAST.
SEAS AROUND 6 FT WELL OFFSHORE/GULF STREAM AND 4-5 FT CLOSER TOWARDS
THE COAST.

THU-SUN..SFC LOW TO THE NE WILL SLOW...THEN COME TO A STOP WITH A
SLIDE WWD RETROGRADE. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP FRI INTO SAT...
KEEPING HIGHER SEAS OFFSHORE TO 5-6 FT ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS
THU...WITH DECAYING SWELL ALLOWING SEAS TO SUBSIDE TO 2-3FT ON FRI
AND 2-3FT THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  69  81  66  82 /  30  40  20  20
MCO  68  86  67  88 /  20  30   0  20
MLB  71  83  67  85 /  50  40  20  30
VRB  70  84  67  85 /  50  40  20  30
LEE  66  85  66  87 /  10  20   0  20
SFB  67  84  67  87 /  20  30  10  20
ORL  68  84  68  88 /  20  30  10  20
FPR  69  84  67  86 /  50  40  20  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR FLAGLER BEACH
     TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO
     JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-
     60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60
     NM.

&&

$$

LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...PENDERGRAST
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WIMMER



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