Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KOKX 261149
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
749 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS TODAY AND MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS SOUTH OF THE AREA OVER THE ATLANTIC DURING THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WATER VAPOR INDICATES A LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER ERN
CANADA DRIFTING WWD. THE MODELS INDICATE THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE
TODAY. SHRTWV ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYS HAS WEAKENED
SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE MODELS. AS A RESULT...QPF IS MINIMAL IN THE
PROGS. HAVE KEPT POPS AROUND 20 PERCENT AS A RESULT...GOING WITH
ISOLD COVERAGE. THE NAM INDICATES MAYBE A FEW SPRINKLES SPREADING
SWD DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY INTO THE EVE BEFORE FIZZLING OVER THE
CWA. OTHERWISE THE DATA SUGGESTS DRY. WENT WITH A DRY FCST AFT 1Z
WITH LOSS OF SFC BASED INSTABILITY. GUIDANCE WAS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WRT TEMPS...SO WENT WITH A BLEND. MIXING ABV H85 PER MODEL
SOUNDINGS...AND THE TEMP CAP LOOKS TO BE INVOF THE DEVELOPING
CLOUD DECK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SCT SHWRS APPEAR ON TRACK FOR MON AS THE UPR LOW CENTER MAKES ITS
CLOSEST APPROACH AND SLIDES DOWN THE ERN NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE. THE
MOST ROBUST ACTIVITY ERN ZONES CLOSER TO THE UPR SUPPORT. THE NAM
ONLY INDICATES 50-150 J/KG SBCAPE...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES INVOF
THE RI BORDER. RI INTO ERN MA GETS ABV 200 J/KG...IF THIS ENTIRE SYS
SHIFTS SLIGHTLY WWD...THE ISOLD TSTM THREAT COULD EXTEND INTO THE
CWA. FOR NOW...TSTMS NOT INCLUDED IN THE FCST. TEMPS AROUND 0C AT
H85...BUT DEEP MIXING TO AROUND H8 WILL KEEP HIGHS ONLY A FEW
DEGREES BLW CLIMO. THE RIBBON OF SHRTWV ENERGY THEN SLIDES EWD MON
NGT AND TUE. AS A RESULT...GRADUALLY END PCPN CHCS MON NGT AND
KEPT TUE DRY. TEMPS APPROACH CLIMO WITH HEIGHTS INCREASING AND
DEEP MIXING CONTINUES ON NW FLOW. UPR RIDGING THEN BUILDS IN ON
WED. A DRY FCST WED AND WED NGT. THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES AS
THE UPR RIDGE AXIS BUILDS IN. TEMPS SHOULD REACH INTO AT LEAST THE
UPR 60S ALONG AND W OF THE HUDSON...BUT THE WEAK PRES FIELD SHOULD
RESULT IN FAIRLY DEEP PENETRATION OF SEA BREEZE FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARDS THE ECMWF NOTION OF DEEPENING LOW PRES
SOMEWHERE NEAR HATTERAS THU...THEN TRACKING NEWD OVER THE ATLC FRI
AND INTO THE N ATLC SAT. THE MODEL CONSENSUS IN STILL THAT THE SYS
MISSES US...WITH PERHAPS SOME SHWRS IN THE WAA PATTERN ON THU.
MAINTAINED THE LOW POPS IN THE FCST THRU THE PERIOD...BUT CHANGES WX
TYPE TO RAIN FRI-SAT AS IT APPEARS THE FOCUS WILL BE ON THE NRN
EXTENT OF THE PCPN SHIELD AS OPPOSED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERY
PCPN ATTM. TEMPS A BLEND OF PREV AND THE GMOS25.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A THERMAL TROF SETS UP ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN REESTABLISHES ITSELF TONIGHT.

THIS WILL RESULT IN A N/NE FLOW AT LESS THAN 10 KT THIS MORNING...
WHICH THEN BACKS AROUND THE THE W/SW BY AFTERNOON. SEABREEZES ARE
LIKELY AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS...DEVELOPING AS EARLY AS 15Z ALONG
THE CT COAST. KEWR AND KLGA MAY SEABREEZE LATE. WINDS ARE LIKELY
TO VARY AS THE TROUGH SETS UP IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS THEN BECOME
NW THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THU...
.MON-MON NIGHT...POSSIBLE MVFR WITH SHOWERS.
.TUE-WED NIGHT...VFR.
.THU...POSSIBLE MVFR WITH SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY
WORKS SLOWLY EAST. MARGINAL GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE MON NIGHT INTO TUE ON
THE OCEAN WATERS AS A NLY FLOW STRENGTHENS BETWEEN A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE WEST. LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE SE COAST THU MAY IMPACT
THE WATERS WITH A STRENGTHENING EASTERLY FLOW AND BUILDING SEAS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JMC
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...DW
HYDROLOGY...JMC


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