Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 032151
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
551 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND WARM WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON. AN APPROACHING FRONT BRINGS RAIN CHANCES BY MONDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING WERE MAINLY CONCENTRATED ON
STARTING TRENDS OUT CLOSER TO THE HIGHLY VARIED TEMPERATURE FIELD
THIS AFTERNOON. WITH A NON-UNIFORMING MIXING PROFILE TODAY DUE TO
WEAK MOMENTUM IN THE MIXED LAYER...HIGHS HAVE VARIED GENERALLY
FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE CWA. GOING INTO
TONIGHT...VERY STRONG INVERSIONS ARE NOTED ON MODEL
SOUNDINGS...AND AS A RESULT...THERMAL BELTS IN THE RIDGES WERE
STRENGTHENED IN THE GRIDS TREMENDOUSLY. THIS HAD A BIG IMPACT ON
THE RH RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT...MAKING THEM VERY POOR IN THE RIDGES.
LIKEWISE...GOING INTO MONDAY...LAYER MOMENTUM BELOW THE MIXING
HEIGHT INCREASES DRASTICALLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL
INCREASE DEWPOINT VALUES THROUGH THE DAY...AND LIKEWISE ALLOW FOR
A MORE UNIFORM MIXED PROFILE. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
HAVE NO DIFFICULTY IN SKYROCKETING DURING THE MORNING BEFORE A
MORE PERVASIVE CUMULUS FIELD DEVELOPS. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL KEEP SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN CONTINUED
WARM AIR ADVECTION. DAYTIME MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE APPROXIMATELY
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. POPS INCREASE LATE MONDAY AS MOISTURE
ADVECTION RAMPS UP OUT AHEAD OF A BOUNDARY SLOWLY TRANSITIONING
SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WARM TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE WEATHER HIGHLIGHT THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AS RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 10 AND 15
DEGREES ABOVE THE AVERAGES.

THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY PRECIPITATION STILL LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDES OVER THE
UPPER OHIO REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MARGINAL
INSTABILITY...BUT IMPROVED MOISTURE...MID LEVEL THERMAL
TROUGHING...AND AFTERNOON WARMTH MAY SUPPORT SOME THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...WITH BETTER CHANCES OVER HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUING TO DOMINATE. EASTWARD SHIFTING SURFACE RIDGE WITH
PLAINS TROUGHING WILL SUPPORT LIGHT SOUTH...TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE
WIND.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR GENERAL RESTRICTIONS WILL COME WITH A TUESDAY
FRONTAL ENCROACHMENT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$


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