Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 250206
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
806 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

.UPDATE...NEW NAM GUIDANCE STILL INDICATES LATE NIGHT SHOWERS
ALONG THE ID-MT BORDER...SO WILL KEEP THE HIGHER POPS IN THERE FOR
THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS PRETTY MUCH DONE OR
HAS MOVED INTO WYOMING. SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY
RECEIVE SOME OF THE SHOWERS CURRENTLY IN NORTHERN UTAH...BUT
BELIEVE THE HIGH REFLECTIVITY ON THE COMPOSITE FROM KMTX RADAR IS
A RAIN-SNOW LINE AS ALGORITHMS INDICATE A DRY SNOW AT A
SUFFICIENTLY HIGH ENOUGH ELEVATION SLICE. MESSICK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 158 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A
COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH EASTERN IDAHO THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW
THUNDERSHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEAST
IDAHO WHILE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS PERSIST BEHIND THE FRONT FROM THE
MAGIC VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO PRESS
EAST WITH MOST SHOWERS MOVING OUT OF CENTRAL AND EAST IDAHO BY
MIDNIGHT. EXPECT MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EAST IDAHO ON SATURDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
ANOTHER ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT ARRIVE. BEST CHANCES WILL BE IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND HIGHLANDS WITH MAINLY SCATTERED ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
SNAKE PLAIN. SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN
HIGHLANDS ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH THAT
AREA. EXPECT DRIER WEATHER ACROSS MOST OF THE SNAKE PLAIN AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE AREA. DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AREAWIDE WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD.

VALLE

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PUSHES EAST ON TUESDAY WITH DRY AND WARM WEATHER
CONTINUING TUESDAY.   BOTH EUROPEAN AND GFS GRADUALLY RETURN SOME
MOISTURE TO SOUTHEAST IDAHO WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AND GRADUALLY
ADDED SOME MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER IN THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE
PERIOD POSSIBLY TOUCHING 80 DEGREES IN THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SOME COOLING BY FRIDAY.
GK

AVIATION...HAVE SHOWERS AT SUN AND BY THIS AFTERNOON AND VICINITY
AT IDA AND PIH.   COULD ALSO SEE PREDOMINATE SHOWERS MOVING THERE AS
WELL BY LATE AFTERNOON.   KEPT VFR CONDITIONS DESPITE THE RAIN AND
EXPECT 15 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AT BYI...PIH AND IDA INTO EARLY EVENING
BEFORE DYING OUT AFTER SUNSET.
GK

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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