Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pago Pago

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FXZS60 NSTU 270117
AFDPPG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR AMERICAN SAMOA AND INDEPENDENT SAMOA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PAGO PAGO AS
217 PM SST SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...
.TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FCST ZONES
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A DIFFUSED SURFACE TROUGH WILL
PASS TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. THUS...A DEVELOPING
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTH OF NIUE WILL EVENTUALLY BOOST
WINDS TO RETURN FROM THE SOUTHEAST STARTING MONDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL ALLOW MOISTURE AND CLOUDS TO ENHANCE NEAR THE SAMOAN ISLANDS
YET ONLY MINIMAL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR AFTERNOON SCATTERED
SHOWERS NEAR MOUNTAINOUS LOCATIONS DUE TO OROGRAPHIC LIFTING PROCESS.
AS A RESULT...EXPECT VARIABLE WINDS UP TO 10 KT TO BECOME SOUTHEAST 10 TO
15 KT MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...
.WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...COMPUTER MODELS STRUGGLED TO AGREE ON TIMING
AS TO WHEN THE TRADE-WINDS WILL RISE TO NEAR 20 KT DURING THE MIDWEEK.
ALTHOUGH THE GFS MODEL HINTS AT INDUCING WET WEATHER CONDITIONS WHICH
CORRELATES WITH THE SEASONAL TRADE-WIND WEATHER AND THE ONSET OF THE
WINTER SEASON...FOR NOW...WILL KEEP THE SHOWER COVERAGE AT A MINIMAL
WHILE MONITORING THIS SITUATION. THEREFORE...ANTICIPATE MODERATE
TRADE-WINDS AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...THE LATEST WAVE WATCH MODEL SUGGEST COMBINED SEAS AND
SWELLS WILL DECLINE TO NEAR 5 TO 7 FT ON MONDAY. THUS...ANTICIPATE
MODERATE SEAS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.A HIGH SURF ADVISORY.
.A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

&&

$$

BAQUI







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