Area Forecast Discussion
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FXPQ60 PGUM 182120
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
720 AM CHST SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PGUA DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS A PATCH OF SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE
EASTERN WATERS OF GUAM AND ROTA. THIS WILL CAUSE INCREASED
CLOUDINESS FOR GUAM AND ROTA TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE VAD WIND PROFILE REVEALS 12 TO 22 KNOT WINDS THROUGH THE
LOWEST 5 THOUSAND FEET OF THE AIR.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MINOR RIPPLE IN THE TRADE-WIND FLOW WILL BE JUST ENOUGH TO MAKE
SKIES PARTLY SUNNY FOR GUAM AND ROTA TODAY RATHER THAN MOSTLY
SUNNY. RAIN FALL MOST LIKELY WILL BE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL...NOTHING
ALL THAT SIGNIFICANT THOUGH. SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO
BUILD THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THEY COULD BRIEFLY JUST TOUCH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA. ANYBODY WHO OWNS A SMALLER BOAT AND ESPECIALLY
THOSE WHO PLAN TO TAKE IT OUT IN THE SECOND HALF OF THIS WEEK
SHOULD KEEP UP TO DATE ON FUTURE WIND FORECASTS.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
GENERAL SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR THE REGION REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM
THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. A WEAK CIRCULATION REMAINS IN PLACE NEAR
KOSRAE WITH A NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH EXTENDING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
TO SOUTH OF CHUUK. KOSRAE...POHNPEI AND CHUUK CONTINUE TO SEE
PLEASANT WEATHER THIS MORNING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW AREAS OF
SHOWERS MAINLY SOUTH OF THESE LOCALES. HOWEVER... FORECAST FOR THE
MARSHALLS HAS BECOME RATHER TRICKY...PARTICULARLY IN THE NEAR-
TERM. A LARGE CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORMED JUST
NORTHWEST OF KWAJALEIN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...SPREADING AND
SHIFTING SLOWLY TOWARDS THE EAST. KWAJALEIN OBSERVATIONS SHOW
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN FALLING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...RAIN HEAVY AT
TIMES. INHERITED FORECAST AND LATEST MODEL RUN INDICATES SHOWERS
AT MAJURO TODAY BUT IR SATELLITE SHOWS DRY WEATHER IN PLACE THIS
MORNING. LATEST FORECAST WORKS TO BRIDGE THE GAP BETWEEN CURRENT
SATELLITE AND MODEL GUIDANCE. FORECAST TODAY SHOWS PLEASANT
WEATHER THIS MORNING DETERIORATING TO WETTER CONDITIONS AFTER NOON
AND CONTINUING INTO THE NIGHT. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST AT
LEAST THROUGH MONDAY. MODELS MAINTAIN A SOMEWHAT WET TRADE-WIND
PATTERN THROUGH MIDWEEK. AT KOSRAE...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
TROUGH AND CIRCULATION WILL BE NEAR...SLOWLY SHIFTING WEST. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED THERE TODAY. FORECAST STILL CALLS FOR
PLEASANT CONDITIONS AT POHNPEI AND CHUUK THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
THE BULK OF SHOWERS PASSING TO THE NORTH AS THE CIRCULATION HEADS
WEST.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
CHUUK DISCUSSION INCLUDED ABOVE WITH POHNPEI DUE TO SIMILAR
WEATHER.

YAP AND KOROR...ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THESE FORECASTS.
CLOUDS WERE INCREASED FOR TODAY AT YAP AS A WEAK TRADE-WIND
DISTURBANCE PASSES OVER THE ISLAND BRINGING A FEW SHOWERS AND MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD CLEAR OUT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...A RELATIVELY DRY TRADE-WIND FLOW WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS YAP AND KOROR THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SOME
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS COULD ARRIVE FROM THE EAST LATER IN THE COMING
WORK WEEK.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

STANKO/M. AYDLETT



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