Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Phoenix, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KPSR 280950
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
250 AM MST TUE APR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO
OUR EAST WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER EASTERN ARIZONA
TODAY. DRY WEATHER WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND WILL RAPIDLY
TAKE PLACE THIS WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS
APPROACHING THE 100 DEGREE MARK DURING THE LATTER PARK OF THE WEEK.
FOR LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...THE WEATHER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT AGAIN WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION..
THE VERY WESTERN FRINGES OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
CONTINUES TO AFFECT EASTERN ARIZONA WITH OCCASIONAL STRATO-
CU...WHILE THE PACIFIC RIDGE SLOWLY EDGES INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL
ARIZONA. SUFFICIENT REMAINING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH A WEAK
VORTICITY LOBE MOVING FROM NORTHEAST ARIZONA THIS MORNING INTO EAST-
CENTRAL ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD SPARK OFF ISOLATED SHOWERS
POTENTIALLY AFFECTING EASTERN GILA COUNTY. ELSEWHERE...SLIGHT
WARMING ALOFT AND DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO A
BUMP IN HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER YESTERDAY AS OUR WESTERN DESERTS
SHOULD REACH INTO THE 90-95 DEGREE RANGE WHILE THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA DESERTS PEAK NEAR 90 DEGREES.

FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE EARLY WEEKEND THE PACIFIC RIDGE WILL
DOMINATE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH 500MB HEIGHTS OF 578-580DM
THROUGH THE PERIOD. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FROM AROUND 21C ON
WEDNESDAY TO 24C ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
CONTINUING WARMING THROUGH THE WEEK WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AROUND 100 DEGREES OVER THE DESERTS. THESE READINGS STILL
FALL SHORT OF RECORDS BY A FEW DEGREES...BUT WILL BE AROUND 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

AS A BROAD TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHWEST U.S. COAST FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO NEW MEXICO...BUT STILL
CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.
HEIGHTS ALOFT BEGIN TO FALL SLIGHTLY STARTING SATURDAY...BUT NOT
MUCH COOLING WILL BE REALIZED INITIALLY AS HIGHS AGAIN SHOULD TOP OUT
IN THE UPPER 90S ACROSS THE DESERTS. GFS AND EUROPEAN OPERATIONAL
AND ENSEMBLES MEANS ARE STILL ADVERTISING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHING THE REGION SOMETIME EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT HAVE PUSHED
BACK TIMING SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. THIS WILL DELAY
COOLER TEMPERATURES BY AROUND A DAY AND PUSH ANY CHANCES FOR RAIN
BACK TO NEXT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
FALL BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AND LIKELY LAST THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...

DRY SUBSIDENT NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
DESERTS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN THE WAKE OF AN EXITING UPPER LOW.
SKIES SHOULD BE GENERALLY CLEAR ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A FEW
LINGERING MID CLOUDS WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW FROM TIME TO TIME WITH
BASES AOA 10K FEET. A FEW HIGH BASED CU MAY DEVELOP MAINLY OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT AND ON THE DIURNAL SIDE...BUT DUE TO A
TIGHTENING E-W SURFACE GRADIENT THEY MAY BECOME A BIT GUSTY FROM THE
EAST BY AROUND 14-15Z TOMORROW MORNING. EXPECT WINDS TO TURN TO THE
EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND STAY EAST MOST OF THE DAY ON MONDAY.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

EXPECT GENLY CLEAR SKIES NEXT 24 HOURS. GRADIENTS WILL STAY ON THE
WEAK SIDE SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT WIND AT EITHER KBLH OR
KIPL THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL BE A BIT VARIABLE OVERNIGHT
AT KBLH BUT MAY TURN MORE TOWARDS THE EAST BY LATE MORNING
MONDAY...AND PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON. LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND
DIRECTIONS AT KBLH OVER THE NEXT HOURS HOWEVER.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GENERAL WARMING AND DRYING TREND
THROUGH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SOME COOLING WILL FOLLOW DURING THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TEENS AND UPPER SINGLE DIGITS
WITH FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT FOLLOWING TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION....CB
FIRE WEATHER...CDEWEY


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