Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 270523
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
123 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CHILLY NORTH FLOW TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MID/UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES PASS ON MONDAY COULD PROVIDE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. DRY
TUESDAY. SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE...
GAVE THE OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES SOME TLC. ALSO CLEARED OUT THE
SKY A BIT MORE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WE WILL SEE SOME CLEARING BY LATE AFTERNOON IN THE LAST STRATUS
HOLDOUTS IN SE WV/SW VA. TONIGHT WILL FEATURE A CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKY. FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL TRY TO DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT
ESPECIALLY OFF THE HILLTOPS. THIS LEADS TO SOME FROST
CONCERNS...ESPECIALLY IN NE KY/SE OH/AND THE WV LOWLANDS. CURRENT
BELIEF IS THAT THIS WONT BE A WIDESPREAD ISSUE FOR A HEADLINE.
ALSO COMPLICATING MATTERS IS POTENTIAL FOR A FEW CLOUDS TOWARDS
MORNING ACROSS SE OH AND N WV. THUS...WILL ROLL WITH PATCHY
WORDING IN TYPICAL COLD SPOTS OVERNIGHT.

FOR MONDAY...A FAST MOVING S/W TROF WILL PIVOT DOWN WITHIN OVERALL
MEAN TROF. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AMID
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES TO GENERATE SCT SHRA...ESPECIALLY THE N
MOUNTAINS. WILL KEEP JUST ISOLATED WORDING OVER THE C AND S WV
LOWLANDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND KEEP NE KY/SW VA DRY. MAINLY LOOKING
AT SOME CELLULAR SPLASH AND DASH TYPE SHRA. HIGHEST ELEVATIONS
PROBABLY COLD ENOUGH FOR THIS TO BE IN SNOW FLAK FORM AND HAVE
AROUND A TENTH OF ACCUMULATION AT SNOWSHOE. LOOKING AT QUITE A BIT
OF STRATOCU WITH THIS FEATURE...SO AFTER SOME MORNING SUN...EXPECT
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY IN THE AFTN. WINDS SHOULD BE GUSTY IN
THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS SHOWING CLOUDS CLEARING IN ALL BUT THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
MONDAY NIGHT AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS IN AND CAUSES WINDS TO
GO CALM IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S...SOME
FROST IS A POSSIBILITY...PARTICULARLY IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES.

DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

NEXT SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA STARTING ON WEDNESDAY.
CONSIDERABLY VARIABILITY IN THE MODELS WITH THIS SYSTEM AND HOW MUCH
OF OUR REGION IS EFFECTED BY IT. MODELS ARE A BIT SLOWER THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS...SO WILL SLOW DOWN ARRIVAL OF POPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
YET ANOTHER BATTLE BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS EARLY
IN THIS PERIOD...BEFORE THE NORTHERN STREAM TAKES OVER. THERE ARE
MODEL DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAR NORTH A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES GETS INGESTED INTO THE AMPLIFYING
NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH...WHICH DROPS DOWN THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE TREND IS FOR A MORE
NORTHWARD TRACK OF THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM IN THE GFS AND EURO MODELS
BEFORE GETTING KICKED OUT OFF THE CAROLINAS. THIS SCENARIO WILL
BRING RAIN WITH LIKELY POPS TO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH POPS TAPERING OFF SLIGHT CHANCE
OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWESTERN WEST VIRGINIA...ALONG
WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. BY THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH THE
SOUTHERN SYSTEM HAVING MOVED EAST OF THE AREA...WILL LEAVE JUST A
LOW CHANCE FOR A BIT OF UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
WILL NOT PUT ANY SNOW IN AT THIS POINT...BUT THIS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT FOR THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. THEREAFTER...DRY NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND SURFACE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT NO EXTREMES.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD. EXCEPTION WILL BE
EKN...WHERE SOME MVFR CIGS COULD FORM EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE
WOULD BE THE CLOUDS NE OF KPIT THAT ARE DRIFTING SOUTH...BUT STILL
HAVE SOME UNCERTAINTY IF THEY WILL MAKE IT INTO EKN OR NOT.

AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL PASS BY TODAY...WITH SOME RAIN SHOWERS
POSSIBLE. MAINLY NORTH. ALSO HAVE SOME MVFR CIGS AT EKN AND BKW
TONIGHT IN THE N TO NW FLOW BEHIND THIS FEATURE.

NORTH WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS OF
15-25 KTS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR AT EKN MAY NOT DEVELOP OR THE HOURS WILL
VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              MON 04/27/15
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/JMV/30
NEAR TERM...30/26
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...MZ








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