Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
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000
FXXX12 KWNP 031230
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2015 May 03 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity increased to low levels due to a few weak C-class flares.
A majority of the activity was observed from Region 2335 (S16E43,
Dac/beta). The region continued a minor growth trend, particularly in
its intermediate and trailer spot area. An area of enhanced emission,
visible on the NE limb in GOES-15 SXI imagery, was also responsible for
weak C-class flare activity. New Region 2336 (N13E18, Bxo/beta) emerged
on the disk this period.

Numerous CMEs were observed during the period, including a partial-halo
CME observed off the SE through SW limb, first visible in SOHO/LASCO C2
imagery at 02/2036 UTC. The source of this CME is thought to be
associated with an 18 degree long filament eruption, centered near
S46E09, observed between 02/1500-1830 UTC. Analysis is ongoing on the
source of this CME and any potential Earth impact.

SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery observed three additional CMEs during the period.
The first CME was off the SW limb, first observed at 03/0125 UTC. Two
additional CMEs were observed off the NE limb, observed at 03/0400 UTC
and 03/0636 UTC. All three of these CMEs are believed to have back-sided
source regions and are not expected to impact Earth.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class
flares over the next three days (03-05 May).

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels
this period, reaching a maximum flux of 118 pfu at 02/1935 UTC. The
greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to
moderate levels over the next three days (03-05 May) while the greater
than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels
throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were indicative of the continued influence of a
positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Solar wind
speeds averaged in the 400 km/s range. IMF total field gradually
decreased through the period from 9 to 6 nT while Bz reached a maximum
southward component of -7 nT at about 02/1900 UTC. The phi angle
remained predominately in a positive (away from the Sun) solar sector
orientation.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to slowly return to background
levels on day one (03 May) and persist at background levels on day two
(04 May) and a majority of day three (05 May). A minor solar wind
enhancement is likely late on 05 May as a weak negative polarity CH HSS
becomes geoeffective. Solar wind velocity is expected to increase to
around 450-550 km/s during the HSS.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels this period due
to continued CH HSS influence.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominately quiet levels
for the remainder of day one (03 May). Mostly quiet conditions are
expected for day two (04 May) and for a majority of day three (05 May)
when the onset of a negative polarity CH HSS is expected to cause
periods of unsettled field activity late on 05 May.



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