Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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MNC041-095-097-121-145-149-153-050345-

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT...DELAYED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1038 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

DROUGHT STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN,MN
218 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

...SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF NORTHWEST AND
PORTION OF CENTRAL MINNESOTA...

...MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF
THE REST OF THE MINNESOTA...AND MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...

SYNOPSIS...

SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE APPEARED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...AND ALMOST ALL OF NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA DURING THE
PAST WEEK.

ALTHOUGH APRIL PRECIPITATION WAS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
FOR SOUTHEASTERN MINNESOTA...MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE
RECEIVED LESS THEN SEVENTY FIVE PERCENT OF NORMAL PRECIPITATION
VALUES. IN FACT...MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA
REGISTERED BETWEEN 25 AND 50 PERCENT OF NORMAL VALUES. THE AMOUNTS
OF PRECIPITATION THAT FELL VARIED FROM ONE AND ONE HALF INCHES TO
NEAR THREE INCHES SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM...RUSHMORE TO ST CLOUD
TO MORA. NORTHWEST OF THIS LINE...RAINFALL OF JUST A FEW TENTHS OF
AN INCH TO JUST OVER AN INCH WERE RECORDED. MUCH OF FAR WEST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA RECEIVED ONLY FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH...TO NEAR
ONE HALF OF AN INCH.

PRECIPITATION FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE
MAINLY RANGED FROM ONLY A TENTH OF AN INCH TO NEAR ONE HALF OF
AN INCH ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF...AND VARIED FROM ONE HALF OF AN
INCH TO NEAR ONE AND ONE HALF INCHES ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
EASTERN HALF OF MINNESOTA. THIS AMOUNTED TO BELOW AVERAGE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION THAT RANGED FROM 10 TO 25 PERCENT ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHWEST...WITH 25 PERCENT TO NEAR 75 PERCENT OVER MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF MINNESOTA.


SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

LOCAL AREAS AFFECTED.

...MINNESOTA...

SEVERE DROUGHT /D2/ CONDITIONS ARE PREVALENT OVER CENTRAL AND MUCH
OF NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM ORTONVILLE TO
SAUK CENTRE TO PINE CENTER.

MODERATE DROUGHT /D1/ CONDITIONS WERE NOTED OVER MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE STATE...SAVE FAR SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...WHICH
VARIED FROM ABNORMALLY DRY TO NORMAL CONDITIONS.

...WISCONSIN...

MODERATE DROUGHT /D1/ CONDITIONS WERE SEEN OVER THE MAJORITY OF
WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...MINUS THE EASTERN HALVES OF CHIPPEWA AND
EAU CLAIRE COUNTIES. THESE EASTERN PORTIONS OF CHIPPEWA AND EAU
CLAIRE COUNTIES WERE DESIGNATED AS ABNORMALLY DRY.

SOIL CONDITIONS.

AS OF APRIL 26TH...

...MINNESOTA...

DESPITE COOL TEMPERATURES AND NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION
CONDITIONS IN MINNESOTA...PLANTING PROGRESS REMAINED WELL AHEAD
OF LAST YEAR AND THE 5 YEAR AVERAGE DURING THE WEEK ENDING APRIL
26TH. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HELPED IMPROVE
TOP SOIL MOISTURE SUPPLIES TO 2 PERCENT VERY SHORT...29 PERCENT
SHORT...68 PERCENT ADEQUATE...AND ONE PERCENT SURPLUS. SUBSOIL
MOISTURE SUPPLIES WERE RATED 4 PERCENT VERY SHORT...35 PERCENT
SHORT...61 PERCENT ADEQUATE...AND ZERO PERCENT SURPLUS.

CORN PLANTING REACHED 38 PERCENT COMPLETE...18 DAYS AHEAD OF LAST
YEAR AND NINE DAYS AHEAD OF THE FIVE YEAR AVERAGE. A FEW FARMERS
ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA HAVE STARTED TO PLANT SOYBEANS. BARLEY
WAS 58 PERCENT SEEDED AND 10 PERCENT OF THE ACREAGE HAD EMERGED.
SPRING WHEAT WAS EIGHTY ONE PERCENT PLANTED FIVE WEEKS AHEAD OF
LAST YEAR.

...WISCONSIN...

THERE WERE 4.1 DAYS SUITABLE FOR FIELDWORK DURING THE WEEK ENDING
APRIL 26TH. SNOW...RAIN...HAIL AND COLD...WINDY CONDITIONS STALLED
FIELDWORK AT THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. TOPSOIL MOISTURES FELL
SLIGHTLY IN SPITE OF THE PRECIPITATION RECEIVED...ENDING THE WEEK
WITH 2 PERCENT VERY SHORT...20 PERCENT SHORT...68 PERCENT ADEQUATE
AND TEN PERCENT SURPLUS. SUBSOIL MOISTURE CHANGED LITTLE FROM THE
PREVIOUS WEEK...AVERAGING 3 PERCENT VERY SHORT...20 PERCENT SHORT
...71 PERCENT ADEQUATE...AND SIX PERCENT SURPLUS.

CORN PLANTED WAS FIVE PERCENT COMPLETE...9 DAYS AHEAD OF LAST YEAR
BUT 3 DAYS BEHIND AVERAGE. OATS PLANTED WAS 46 PERCENT COMPLETE
...18 DAYS AHEAD OF LAST YEAR...AND CURRENTLY 7 DAYS AHEAD OF THE
5 YEAR AVERAGE. POTATOES PLANTED CONTINUED TO INCREASE...REACHING
A RESPECTABLE FORTY PERCENT.


RIVER AND STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS.

AS OF MAY 3RD...RIVER FLOWS OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
MINNESOTA WERE BELOW NORMAL TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL...WITH ONLY FAR
SOUTHEASTERN AND FAR WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA RIVER FLOWS NEAR
NORMAL. MOST REPORTING LOCATIONS RANGED BETWEEN TEN AND FIFTY
PERCENT OF NORMAL.  SOME ISOLATED LOCATIONS ALONG THE MINNESOTA
RIVER WERE REPORTING LESS THEN TEN PERCENT OF NORMAL. A FEW
LOCATIONS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEASTERN MINNESOTA...HOWEVER...RECORDED
WATER LEVELS AS HIGH AS 130% OF NORMAL.

AS OF MAY 3RD...ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...RIVER FLOWS VARIED
BETWEEN 25 PERCENT TO 80 PERCENT OF NORMAL. THIS EQUATED TO RIVER
LEVELS FROM SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TO NORMAL CONDITIONS. A MORE
ACTIVE STORM PATTERN WILL AFFECT THE DROUGHT REGION DURING THE
NEXT WEEK...NOTICEABLY RAISING WATER LEVELS IN BOTH MINNESOTA
AND WISCONSIN.


FIRE DANGER IMPACTS.

...MINNESOTA...

AS OF MAY 3RD...THE FIRE DANGER RATING FOR MINNESOTA WAS HIGH
MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE...FROM BARRY TO NEW LONDON TO WATERTOWN
TO WEST ST PAUL. NORTH OF THIS LINE MUCH OF CENTRAL MINNESOTA
WAS UNDER A VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER RATING. BURNING PERMITS ARE
REQUIRED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA SOUTH OF THE ABOVE LINE. NORTH
OF THIS LINE...RESTRICTED BURNING OR NO BURNING IS ALLOWED
...EXCEPT FOR CAMPFIRES.

FOR MORE INFORMATION ON BURNING PERMITS IN MINNESOTA...VISIT THE
MINNESOTA DNR WEB SITE OR CALL 1-888-MINNDNR...OR IN THE TWIN
CITIES METRO CALL 651-296-6157.

...WISCONSIN...

AS OF MAY 3RD...THE FIRE DANGER RATING FOR ALL OF WEST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...AND FOR THE ENTIRE STATE...WAS VERY HIGH. PLEASE
VISIT THE WISCONSIN DNR WEB SITE FOR CURRENT BURNING RESTRICTIONS
OR CALL 1-888-WIS-BURN (947-2876).


PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS...

A DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DIG ACROSS THE
WEST COAST OF THE U.S. INTO LATE THIS WEEK. A SERIES OF STORM
SYSTEMS ORIGINATING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WILL EJECT
OUT OF THIS TROUGH AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH AT LEAST
NEXT SUNDAY. RAIN...SHOWERS AND AT TIMES THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
OBSERVED ACROSS MOST OF THE DROUGHT REGION DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE BETWEEN ONE QUARTER OF AN
INCH...TO NEAR ONE AND ONE HALF INCHES OVER THE DROUGHT REGION
...WITH HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF MINNESOTA
AND PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL WISONSIN. SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
MAY DUMP UP TO A TOTAL OF 2 INCHES OVER ISOLATED LOCATIONS OF
THE DROUGHT REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME FRAME
WILL AVERAGE GENERALLY BETWEEN 5 AND 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

THE 8 TO 14 DAY TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FROM THE
NATIONAL CLIMATE CENTER IS PREDICTING EQUAL CHANCES FOR NORMAL
...BELOW NORMAL OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION.

THE THREE MONTH TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK ENDING IN
JULY...FROM THE NATIONAL CLIMATE CENTER IS PREDICTING EQUAL
CHANCES FOR NORMAL...BELOW NORMAL OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND PRECIPITATION.


HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...

THE U.S. MONTHLY DROUGHT OUTLOOK VALID FOR MAY 2015 INDICATED THAT
DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

THE U.S SEASONAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK VALID THROUGH JULY 31, 2015...
INDICATES CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER MUCH OF
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

POSITIVE EQUATORIAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES CONTINUE
ACROSS MOST OF THE PACIFIC OCEAN. THERE IS APPROXIMATELY A 70%
CHANCE THAT EL NINO CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NORTHERN
HEMISPHERE SUMMER OF 2015...AND A GREATER THEN 60% CHANCE IT WILL
CONTINUE INTO THIS AUTUMN.

NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...

THIS PRODUCT WILL BE UPDATED BY THE END OF THE FIRST WEEK OF
JUNE...OR SOONER IF DROUGHT CONDITIONS CHANGE NOTICEABLY.


.RELATED WEB SITES...

U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR...
   WWW.DROUGHTMONITOR.UNL.EDU
NOAA DROUGHT PAGE...
   WWW.DROUGHT.NOAA.GOV
MIDWESTERN REGIONAL CLIMATE CENTER /MRCC/...
   MRCC.ISWS.ILLINOIS.EDU
HIGH PLAINS REGIONAL CLIMATE CENTER /HPRCC/...
   WWW.HPRCC.UNL.EDU
SOUTH DAKOTA STATE CLIMATOLOGIST CLIMATE AND WEATHER INFORMATION...
   WWW.CLIMATE.SDSTATE.EDU/CLIMATE_SITE/CLIMATE.HTM
MINNESOTA CLIMATOLOGY WORKING GROUP...
   WWW.CLIMATE.UMN.EDU
IOWA CLIMATOLOGY BUREAU...
   WWW.IOWAAGRICULTURE.GOV/CLIMATOLOGY.ASP

ADDITIONAL RIVER INFORMATION...
   NWS - WWW.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS/
   USGS - WATER.USGS.GOV/
   USACE - WWW.NWD-MR.USACE.ARMY.MIL/RCC/

CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER /CPC/...
   WWW.CPC.NOAA.GOV/

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...

THE DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING NOAA/S
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER...THE
USDA...STATE AND REGIONAL CENTER CLIMATOLOGISTS AND THE NATIONAL
DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER. INFORMATION FOR THIS STATEMENT HAS BEEN
GATHERED FROM NWS AND FAA OBSERVATION SITES...STATE COOPERATIVE
EXTENSION SERVICES... THE USDA...USACE AND USGS.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...

IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS REPORT PLEASE
CONTACT:

CRAIG SCHMIDT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
CHANHASSEN, MN 55317
952-368-2542
CRAIG.SCHMIDT@NOAA.GOV


$$


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