Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
000
FNUS22 KWNS 210935
FWDDY2

DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0435 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

...SYNOPSIS...
THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE APPRECIABLY DURING THE
D2/WED PERIOD...AS DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS OVER THE ERN HALF OF
THE CONUS...AND BROAD TROUGHING REMAINS SITUATED OVER MUCH OF CA.
BETWEEN THE TWO...RIDGING WILL EXIST FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS N/NWWD
INTO ALBERTA. THE RESULTANT SFC PATTERN WILL FEATURE RIDGING
EXTENDING FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES S/SEWD THROUGH THE MS VALLEY
AND DOWN TO FL. FARTHER WEST...AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST.

...PORTIONS OF SERN AZ...SRN/CNTRL NM...AND FAR WRN TX...
WITH THE SLOWLY APPROACHING UPPER LOW/TROUGH...LIKELY OVER SRN CA AT
THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...ENHANCED MID-LEVEL FLOW AROUND ITS
PERIPHERY WILL CONTINUE TO IMPINGE UPON THE SWRN CONUS. A DEEP LAYER
OF DRY W/SW FLOW WILL MAINTAIN LOW TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT
OVER THE REGION...WITH PWAT VALUES GENERALLY AROUND 0.25 OR LESS. IN
TURN...DIURNAL MIXING WILL PROMOTE MIN RH VALUES BELOW 10-15
PERCENT. ADDITIONALLY...LATEST FUEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THEY
WILL BE RECEPTIVE FOR FIRE SPREAD ON A RELATIVELY WIDESPREAD BASIS.
HOWEVER...A CONSIDERABLE FACTOR FOR UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE
FORECAST WIND STRENGTH...WHICH WILL LARGELY DEPEND UPON THE EWD
MOVEMENT OF THE MID/UPPER TROUGH AND ATTENDANT JET MAXIMA. A FASTER
EWD PROGRESSION WOULD LIKELY SUPPORT SOME AREA OF CRITICAL
CONDITIONS...RESULTING FROM MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF STRONGER WINDS
ALOFT. AT PRESENT...THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO SUGGESTS SUSTAINED
WINDS WILL BE AROUND 15-20 MPH...CONSISTENT WITH AN ELEVATED FIRE-WX
THREAT /AND LOCALIZED CRITICAL CONDITIONS/. HOWEVER...A CRITICAL
DELINEATION /ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE GUADALUPE MTNS AND
SERN NM/ MAY BE REQUIRED IF CONFIDENCE IN STRONGER FLOW INCREASES.
FURTHERMORE...SUCH A SCENARIO WOULD LIKELY INVOLVE A GREATER EWD
DISPLACEMENT OF THE DRYLINE...AND SUBSEQUENT EWD EXPANSION OF THE
ELEVATED DELINEATION.

..PICCA.. 04/21/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.