Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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FNUS71 KAKQ 241833
FWSAKQ

SPOT FORECAST FOR COLD HARBOR...NPS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
233 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

...DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY...

HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY. DRY CONDITIONS
PERSIST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES AROUND 20
TO 30 PERCENT. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 64 WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 TO 30 MPH. HOWEVER...COOL
TEMPERATURES AND GREEN UP SHOULD LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD
FIRE GROWTH. THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE...CENTRAL VIRGINIA NORTH OF
THE RICHMOND METRO AREA AND THE NORTHERN NECK WILL BE MOST
FAVORABLE FOR INCREASED FIRE DANGER. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST ON SATURDAY AND CROSSES THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES FOR RAIN TO THE AREA.


.SATURDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). A SLIGHT CHANCE
                    OF RAIN LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN A CHANCE OF
                    RAIN EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN LIKELY LATE.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 57.
MIN HUMIDITY........43 PERCENT.
WIND (20FT/2MIN)....LIGHT WINDS...BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 5 MPH LATE.
CHANCE OF PCPN......80 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1200-3000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 TO 4 OR VERY LOW TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
                    PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).............76  76  83  83  83  90  90  90
WEATHER COV.........SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY
WEATHER TYPE........RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN
TSTM COV............
TEMP................47  51  53  54  55  56  57  56
RH..................49  46  43  43  45  45  45  51
20 FT WIND DIR......E   SE  S   S   SW  SW  S   S
20 FT WIND SPD......3   3   3   3   3   3   5   5
20 FT WIND GUST.....5   5   5   5   5   5
MIX HGT (KFT).......1.2 1.6 2.1 2.6 3.0 2.7 2.4 2.1
TRANSP WIND DIR.....N   N   NW  W   W   W   SW  SW
TRANSP WIND SPD.....6   6   6   6   7   8   9   10
LVORI...............2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2
ADI.................9   11  14  17  17  19  20  20
CHC OF PCPN (%).....10  20  20  20  50  50  50  80
HAINES INDEX........4   4   3   3   2   2   2   2
VRATE KT-FT/1000....6   7   10  13  18  19  20  19

.SATURDAY NIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). RAIN LIKELY.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 48.
MAX HUMIDITY........89 PERCENT.
WIND (20FT/2MIN)....LIGHT WINDS.
CHANCE OF PCPN......80 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 8 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL.

TIME (EDT)          6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).............97  97  97  98  98  98  95  95  95  94  94  94
WEATHER COV.........LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY
WEATHER TYPE........RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN
TSTM COV............
TEMP................55  55  53  52  51  51  50  50  49  49  49  48
RH..................55  59  64  69  74  74  80  80  86  86  86  89
20 FT WIND DIR......S   S   SE  SE  SE  SE  E   E   E   E   E   E
20 FT WIND SPD......3   3   1   2   2   2   3   3   3   3   3   3
20 FT WIND GUST.....5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
MIX HGT (KFT).......1.7 1.3 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
TRANSP WIND DIR.....S   S   S   SE  E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E
TRANSP WIND SPD.....10  9   8   8   8   8   9   9   9   9   9   10
LVORI...............2   3   3   3   3   3   4   4   5   4   4   5
ADI.................7   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   6   6   7
CHC OF PCPN (%).....80  80  70  70  70  70  70  70  60  60  60  60
HAINES INDEX........2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2
VRATE KT-FT/1000....15  10  7   5   3   2   2   2   2   2   2   2

.SUNDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). RAIN LIKELY UNTIL LATE
                    AFTERNOON...THEN A CHANCE OF RAIN LATE.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 58.
MIN HUMIDITY........62 PERCENT.
WIND (20FT/2MIN)....LIGHT WINDS...BECOMING NORTH 5 TO 7 MPH EARLY
                    IN THE MORNING.
CHANCE OF PCPN......60 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 7 TO 13 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 TO 4 OR VERY LOW TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
                    PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).............95  95  95  97  97  97  99  99  99  96  96  96
WEATHER COV.........LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY CHC CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE........RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN
TSTM COV............
TEMP................48  48  49  51  52  54  55  56  57  57  58  57
RH..................89  89  89  83  80  74  72  69  64  64  62  62
20 FT WIND DIR......NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  N   N   N   N
20 FT WIND SPD......3   3   5   5   5   6   6   7   7   6   6   5
20 FT WIND GUST.....5   5       10  10  10  10  10  15  10  10  10
MIX HGT (KFT).......0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.4 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.6
TRANSP WIND DIR.....E   NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  N   N   N   N
TRANSP WIND SPD.....10  10  12  12  13  13  13  13  12  10  8   7
LVORI...............5   5   5   4   4   3   3   3   2   2   2   2
ADI.................11  12  13  13  14  15  18  19  20  18  14  12
CHC OF PCPN (%).....60  60  60  60  60  60  60  60  30  30  30  30
HAINES INDEX........2   2   2   2   2   2   3   3   4   4   4   4
VRATE KT-FT/1000....2   2   3   5   7   9   13  15  17  15  12  10



FORECASTER...MONTEFUSCO
REQUESTED BY...NPS
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20150425.COLDH.01/AKQ


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