Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FNUS73 KAPX 052040
FWSAPX

SPOT FORECAST FOR UNHAPPY CAMPER...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
440 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1628 EDT ON MAY 05.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE AT SOMEWHAT HIGHER
LEVELS THAN WE SAW THIS AFTERNOON...AIDED BY A LITTLE MORE CLOUD
COVER AND MOISTURE FROM A WARM FRONT TRYING TO MOVE INTO MICHIGAN
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST...BUT LIGHT ENOUGH THAT LOCAL TERRAIN WILL PRODUCE
UPSLOPE WINDS AT TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE
FOR RAIN LATE IN THE DAY...BUT IT LOOKS LIGHT AND SHOWERS WILL
SCATTERED.

A MORE SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER DAY POSSIBLE THURSDAY WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. ONCE
AGAIN RELATIVE HUMIDITY NOT LIKELY TO BE AN ISSUE...SO NOT
ANTICIPATING RED FLAG ISSUES AT THIS POINT. BEST CHANCE FOR
HELPFUL RAINS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY.

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 66.
RH..................MIN 45 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST 5 TO 7 MPH LATE
                    IN THE MORNING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 2 TO 10 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......100-1800 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2700 FT AGL LATE
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........MAX 5.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MAX GOOD(300).
MIXING HEIGHT.......100-1800 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2700 FT AGL LATE
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 2 TO 10 MPH.

TIME (EDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........60  69  74  76  79  80  78  74  72  71  70  69
WEATHER COV.....                                CHC CHC CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE....                                RN  RN  RN  RN
TEMP............40  42  44  47  51  55  58  61  63  65  65  65
RH..............96  93  89  83  71  61  57  51  50  46  48  48
20 FT WIND DIR..N   NE  E   E   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT WIND SPD..1   2   3   4   4   5   6   6   7   7   7   7
20 FT WIND GUST.    5   5   5   10  10  10  15  15  15  15  15
HAINES INDEX....5   5   5   4   3   2   2   2   2   2   2   2
SMOKE DISP......0   0   0   0   0   100 100 200 300 300 200 200

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    EARLY IN THE EVENING.
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 46.
RH..................MAX 100 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING LIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 1 TO 7 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......200-1700 FT AGL.
HAINES INDEX........MIN 2.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MIN POOR(0).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200-1700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 1 TO 7 MPH.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........68  67  66  65  63  61  59  57  56  55  53  52
WEATHER COV.....CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE....RN  RN
TEMP............64  62  60  57  55  52  50  48  47  46  46  47
RH..............52  56  60  64  66  69  74  83  89  96  100 100
20 FT WIND DIR..SE  SE  E   SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S
20 FT WIND SPD..7   6   6   5   4   3   2   1   1   1   1   1
20 FT WIND GUST.10  10  10  10  5   5   5
HAINES INDEX....2   2   2   2   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
SMOKE DISP......200 100 100 100 100 0   0   0   0   0   0   0

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 79.
RH..................MIN 45 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 8 MPH IN THE
                    LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 2 TO 9 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST 12
                    TO 18 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......200-400 FT AGL INCREASING TO 7200 FT AGL.
HAINES INDEX........MAX 4.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MAX EXCELLENT(1300).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200-400 FT AGL INCREASING TO 7200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 2 TO 9 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST 12
                    TO 18 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).........50     47     43     38     34     33
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP............48     54     66     75     78     79
RH..............100    86     60     48     45     45
20 FT WIND......S 2    S 3    S 5    S 7    S 7    S 7
20 FT WIND GUST.       5      10     15     15     15
HAINES INDEX....3      3      3      3      3      4
SMOKE DISP......0      0      100    400    800    1300

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.FRIDAY...
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN
THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 9 MPH.
.SATURDAY...
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN
THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND
5 MPH.
.SUNDAY...
COOLER. MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID
40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 6 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...JEFF LUTZ
REQUESTED BY...JAE NAUGLE
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20150505.UNHAP.01/APX


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