Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000
FNUS71 KLWX 042333
FWSLWX

SPOT FORECAST FOR NORTH NEW ROAD RUN...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
733 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1030 EDT ON MAY 05.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE IS NEAR BERMUDA. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTH TUESDAY AND BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
MIDWEEK. JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN LATE IN THE
WEEK.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 54.
MAX HUMIDITY........75-83 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH IN THE
                    EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE...THEN
                    BECOMING WEST AROUND 5 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
CWR.................10 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5200-6900 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 0-900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 7 TO 15 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD TO EXCELLENT (46000-86300
                    KNOT-FT)...DECREASING TO POOR TO FAIR (0-25600
                    KNOT-FT) IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

TIME (EDT)       6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%)..........40     32     32     33     32     34
WEATHER COV......
WEATHER TYPE.....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP.............73     68     63     58     58     56
RH...............34     43     55     66     66     71
20 FT WIND.......SW 8   S 6    SW 4   SW 3   SW 4   W 4
20 FT WIND GUST..11     11     7      4      7      7
CWR..............10     10     10     10     10     10
VRATE KT-FT/1000.86     50     9      0      0      0

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT). A CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. A CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS LATE.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 76.
MIN HUMIDITY........45 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE.
CWR.................10 PERCENT...INCREASING TO 50 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......0-1800 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 6600-7400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 6 TO 12 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO GOOD (0-32400 KNOT-FT)...INCREASING TO
                    GOOD TO GOOD (46100-59300 KNOT-FT) LATE IN THE
                    MORNING.

TIME (EDT)       6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%)..........36     37     46     58     67     61
WEATHER COV......                     CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE.....NONE   NONE   NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TEMP.............55     54     60     67     72     75
RH...............76     85     70     55     47     42
20 FT WIND.......W 4    W 4    W 5    W 5    W 4    SW 4
20 FT WIND GUST..7      7      7      7      7      7
CWR..............10     10     10     40     40     50
VRATE KT-FT/1000.0      1      32     59     48     51

.TUESDAY NIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT)...THEN BECOMING
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT). A CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 55.
MAX HUMIDITY........98 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE
                    EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE...THEN
                    BECOMING NORTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH LATE IN THE
                    EVENING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING.
CWR.................50 PERCENT...DECREASING TO 10 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3900-5500 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 0-400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 5 TO 8 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO GOOD (0-40400 KNOT-FT).

TIME (EDT)       6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%)..........55     53     53     52     46     45
WEATHER COV......CHANCE S CHC  S CHC
WEATHER TYPE.....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP.............76     73     66     62     59     58
RH...............42     50     63     73     78     80
20 FT WIND.......SW 4   SW 3   SW 3   W 4    W 4    NW 4
20 FT WIND GUST..7      4      4      7      7      7
CWR..............50     20     20     10     10     10
VRATE KT-FT/1000.40     17     5      1      2      0

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). A CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....69-74.
MIN HUMIDITY........49 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING EAST AROUND
                    5 MPH LATE. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
                    NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................20 PERCENT...INCREASING TO 50 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......MISSING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO POOR (0-3200 KNOT-FT).

TIME (EDT)       6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%)..........44     45     50     56     70     73
WEATHER COV......S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE.....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TEMP.............56     55     59     65     68     71
RH...............88     98     87     73     65     58
20 FT WIND.......NW 3   NW 3   NE 3   NE 3   NE 3   E 4
20 FT WIND GUST..4      4      4      4      4      7
CWR..............20     20     20     50     50     50
VRATE KT-FT/1000.0      3      0      0      0      0

$$
FORECASTER...JACKSON
REQUESTED BY...TOM LEDBETTER
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20150505.NORTH.01/LWX


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