Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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000
FXUS63 KARX 151747
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1247 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015

MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUSES ON ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

SURFACE WEATHER MAP HAS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR HUDSON BAY IN
CANADA. THIS WAS PROVIDING THE AREA WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM
TO LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 5 TO 10 MPH WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING
FROM THE MIDDLE 30S IN THE SAND COUNTRY OF CENTRAL WI.. TO THE LOWER
AND MIDDLE 40S ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA. OF NOTE WAS DRY
AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AT 3 AM ONLY IN THE
UPPER 30 TO MIDDLE 40 PERCENT RANGE OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA.

FOR TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY WITH
A VERY DRY OUTFLOW FROM IT ACROSS OUR AREA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE HIGH AND DEEP LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL GENERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE 10-20 MPH RANGE WITH
GUSTS IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE AS HIGHS TOP OFF IN THE 60S. THIS WILL
LEAD TO ELEVATED/CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FROM
AROUND NOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. MORE DETAIL ON THE FIRE CONCERN
IS OUTLINED IN THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.

FOR TONIGHT...WILL BE WATCHING A MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVE NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THERE WILL BE SOME
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...BUT MAIN FOCUS OF MOISTURE REMAINS WELL
WEST/NORTHWEST OF THE AREA FOR ANY SHOWER CHANCES AS SURFACE
HIGH/DRY AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS OUR AREA. OTHERWISE...LOOK
FOR LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 40S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015

THURSDAY LOOKS DRY AS WELL WITH RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.
WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...LOOK FOR HIGHS TOPPING OFF IN THE 60S.

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MOVES INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AS A MID-LEVEL
TROUGH/SURFACE COLD FRONT SLIPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION. MOST
MOISTURE IS CONFINED ABOVE 800MB...BUT GIVEN FORCING WITH THE
FRONT...COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY. WARMING AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WARMS 925MB TEMPERATURES INTO THE 15-18C RANGE...WHICH
SHOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO A FEW LOWER 70S.

A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH/COLD FRONT. LOOK FOR
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

SHOWER CHANCES THEN RETURN TO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...LASTING
THROUGH MONDAY AS BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF MODELS SHOW NORTHERN/SOUTHERN
STREAM TROUGHS PHASING OVER THE AREA. INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ACT TO COOL TEMPERATURES AS WELL WITH HIGHS
ON SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S AND LOWER/MIDDLE 50S BY MONDAY.

LOOKS LIKE THE PUSHED TROUGH WILL THEN FORM A CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. LOOKS DRY FOR NOW MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT COOL CYCLONIC FLOW EXPECTED TO GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS
ON TUESDAY. HIGHS ON TUESDAY LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL WI...TO THE UPPER 50S ACROSS NORTHEAST IA/FAR
SOUTHWEST WI.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

CONDITIONS ARE ON TARGET WITH FORECAST AND WILL PERSIST IN THE
CRITICAL RANGE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.

WE WILL BE UPDATING THE AFTERNNON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FOR
THURSDAY AND REDUCING THEM VERSUS THE CURRENT FORECAST. DRIER AIR
WILL PERIST...ALTHOUGH SOMEWHAT HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR WILL MOVE IN
THURSDAY. WITH WIND SPEEDS VERY LIGHT THURSDAY...DO NOT EXPECT ANY
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ017-029-
     032>034-041>044-053>055-061.

MN...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ079-086>088-
     094>096.

IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....DAS
LONG TERM......DAS
AVIATION...BAUMGARDT
FIRE WEATHER...DAS



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