Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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000
FXUS63 KARX 060800
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
300 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN WILL LEAD TO PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SOME
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT
FOR SOME AREAS. CLOSED CIRCULATION EJECTING OUT OF THE MEAN TROUGH
ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS...SPINNING OVER COLORADO
OVERNIGHT. FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION LEADING TO SHOWERS FROM CENTRAL MN ACROSS
PRIMARILY THE NORTHERN HALF OF WI. MEANWHILE...STRONGER DYNAMIC
FORCING NEARER THE MAIN LOW CNTER LEADING TO CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT FROM KS/MO UP INTO IA. MAIN CIRCULATION AND FORCING
WILL MOVE NORTH INTO THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT. CONTINUED MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO OUR AREA SUGGESTS THAT SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP AND AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MN
AND NORTHEAST IA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER IT DOES APPEAR
THE BETTER SUPPORT WILL REMAIN FURTHER WEST. HAVE BEEN MAINTAINING
RAIN CHANCE GRADIENT DIMINISHING FURTHER EAST FOR A FEW DAYS NOW
AND WILL KEEP THE GENERAL TREND THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

DESPITE PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SOME RAIN...WARM ADVECTION AND ANY
RANDOM PEEK AT THE SUN WILL HELP TEMPERATURES MAKE IT UP INTO THE
70S. AND A FEW LOCALIZED 80 DEGREE READINGS ARE NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

VERY UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL MAKE THE TIMING DETAILS OF THE
FORECAST CHALLENGING FOR THE NEXT WEEK TO 10 DAYS. DAKOTAS WAVE
CONTINUES NORTH INTO CANADA...WITH SECONDARY SHORT WAVE TROUGH
HELPING TO KICK THE TRAILING SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. GULF WILL BE WIDE OPEN AT THIS POINT
SO MOISTURE RETURN AND INSTABILITY SHOULD DRIVE SOME CONVECTION
THROUGH THE REGION WITH RAIN LIKELY DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...
SUPPORTED BY ALL MODELS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON JUST HOW FAR
AND HOW FAST THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY. GFS MOST
ROBUST WITH THE SURGE OF COOLER/DRIER AIR. ECMWF TRENDING THAT WAY
TOO LEADING TO A BIT HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS
TIME. OPTED TO FAVOR THE GFS FOR THIS PERIOD DUE TO THE TREND.

MAIN LONG WAVE TROUGH FINALLY LOOKING TO FULLY EJECT OUT OF THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST OVER THE WEEKEND...TAKING ITS TIME TRACKING INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST BY LATE MON/TUE. MODELS IN SURPRISINGLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF FEATURES AS THIS TAKES
PLACE. MAIN SURFACE LOW DEEPENS ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES BY
SUNDAY MORNING. IF THIS TIMING HOLDS...SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
COULD BE INTERESTING WITH SEVERAL PARAMETERS FALLING INTO PLACE
FOR A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK FROM THE PLAINS UP TOWARD IA. LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY LOOKS PRETTY WET UNDER THIS SCENARIO AS THE
SYSTEM SLOWLY TRAVERSES THE TRI-STATE REGION.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

PERIODS OF LIFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KRST IN FOG
AND STRATUS THROUGH MID MORNING ON WEDNESDAY WITH VISIBILITIES
FALLING INTO THE 1/4 TO 1/2 MILE RANGE AND CEILINGS OF 200 FT OR
LESS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE IN THE 12 TO 14Z TIMEFRAME AS A
WARM FRONT STARTS TO LIFT NORTH OF THE TAF SITES. MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KLSE IN FOG AND STRATUS. PLAN ON
CEILINGS FALLING TO AROUND 900 AND VISIBILITIES RANGING FROM 4 TO
5 SM. LOOK FOR CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID MORNING ON
WEDNESDAY.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ086-087-
     094-095.

IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR IAZ008>010-
     018-019-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...WETENKAMP


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