Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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FXUS63 KARX 180852
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
352 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE CRITICAL FIRE  WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS
CENTRAL WISCONSIN TODAY...FOCUS THEN QUICKLY TURNS TO RAIN CHANCES
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

CURRENT SURFACE MAP THIS MORNING SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO. MEANWHILE LOW
PRESSURE WAS LIFTING NORTHWARD OUT OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS WITH
A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT LEADING TO BREEZY CONDITIONS. THE DRY
NORTHEAST FLOW INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING INTO THE LOWER 20S AND POSSIBLY THE
UPPER TEENS. THESE HUMIDITY VALUES COMBINED WITH EAST WINDS OF 14 TO
18 MPH WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 25 MPH WILL CREATE CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS
PLAGUED THE CENTRAL AND HIGH PLAINS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS OPENS AS
A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY LATER THIS WEEKEND. LOOK FOR SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM  OR TWO OF PUSH INTO AREAS
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TONIGHT THEN RAIN SHOWERS WILL
GRADUALLY SPREAD EASTWARD BY SUNDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS THE
TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS  ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST  IOWA AND FAR SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN. THE TROUGH WILL ACCOMPANY A PATTERN SHIFT ACROSS THE
REGION AS A LARGER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE IN
STORE FOR NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES BRINGING
CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES COULD
BE COOL ENOUGH MONDAY NIGHT TO ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN AS THE UPPER LOW SPINS
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL THEN BE THE RULE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. THIS COOL PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE
WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND OVER
THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA BUT LOOK FOR MID LEVEL CEILINGS TO
DEVELOP SATURDAY AT KRST AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO WORK NORTH AHEAD
OF A STORM SYSTEM SLOWLY APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP BETWEEN THE HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM TO PRODUCE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
SATURDAY BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS FROM
THE MIDDLE OF THE MORNING INTO THE EVENING. THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT
STARTS TO INCREASE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH THE
EASTERN CONVERGENT SIDE OF THIS OVER SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
NORTHEAST IOWA. AS THE FORCING STARTS TO INCREASE IN THE EVENING
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM...SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWERS DEVELOP
IN THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AXIS. HAVE ADDED A VCSH FOR LATE
SATURDAY EVENING AT KRST FOR THIS DEVELOPMENT. KEPT KLSE DRY AS IT
LOOKS LIKE THE SHOWERS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 19.06Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...TODAY
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH INTO EASTERN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN
TODAY PRODUCING DRY CONDITIONS WITH AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES FALLING INTO THE 19 TO 22 PERCENT RANGE. A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE EAST WINDS OF 14 TO 18 MPH WITH GUSTS
APPROACHING 25 MPH AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY IN OPEN AREAS. RAIN CHANCES
RETURN LATE TONIGHT WITH RAIN LOOKING LIKELY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR WIZ034-042>044.

MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...04
FIRE WEATHER...WETENKAMP


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