Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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FXUS63 KARX 250755
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
255 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

FORECAST FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE RAIN THREAT TODAY. CLOSED
CIRCULATION SPINNING THROUGH KS EARLY THIS MORNING...HEADING EAST
AND WEAKENING THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. DEFORMATION AND FRONTOGENETIC
FOCUS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS IA AND NORTHERN IL. MAIN DILEMA IS
HOW FAR NORTH RAIN WILL GET. VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS HAD BEEN SUGGESTING RAIN WOULD SPREAD NORTH AS FAR
AS THE I-90 CORRIDOR. BUT THE LAST FEW RUNS HAVE NOW SHIFTED THAT
FOCUS FURTHER SOUTH. LOOKING AT THE FORCING AND THE INFLUX OF MORE
DRY LOW LEVEL AIR ON EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS SUPPORT A TIGHTER
RAIN/NO-RAIN GRAIDIENT AND THE SOUTHWARD SHIFT. THIS TREND IS
ALREADY BORNE OUT LOOKING AT OVERNIGHT RADAR LOOPS SHOWING THE
DIMINISHING TREND. SO MOVED THE FORECAST IN THIS DIRECTION FOR
TODAY. RAIN THREAT WILL END BY SUNSET AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER
MB/ONT BUILDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION. AIRMASS DRIES AND
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES TUMBLE. A CHILLY NIGHT IS ON
TAP...ESPECIALLY OVER OUR TYPICAL COOL AREAS OF CENTRAL WI.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

LOOKING INTO THE LONGER TERM...UPPER FLOW PATTERN REMAINS BLOCKED
THANKS TO THE EAST COAST CLOSED LOW WHICH PERSISTS INTO AT LEAST
TUESDAY. THIS KEEPS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY EASTERLY FLOW
POURING INTO THE AREA. A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPS INTO THE
BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW LATE ON TUESDAY. THIS COULD BRING A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS TO PARTS OF THE AREA...BUT WITH A VERY DRY
ATMOSPHERE THE CHANCES WILL BE QUITE LOW. THE PATTERN TRANSITIONS
TO MORE OF AN OMEGA LOOK BY LATE IN THE WEEK...PUTTING THE AREA
MORE IN THE UPPER RIDGE. THUS...A WARMING TREND IS ON TAP WITH
TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE NORMAL. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR
ANY RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE NEXT WEEKEND AS THE PERSISTANT SOUTHERLY
FLOW FINALLY GETS ENOUGH MOISTURE INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

WITH THE FRONTOGENESIS CONTINUING TO WEAKEN...EXPECT THE LIGHT
RAIN AT KLSE TO DISSIPATE BY 25.08Z. THIS RAIN WILL NOT CAUSE ANY
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. A DRY EASTERLY FLOW IN THE 10 TO 20 KNOT
RANGE WITH OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS WILL BRING DRY AIR
INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP CEILINGS IN THE 3 TO 5K RANGE
THROUGH 25.23Z...AND THEN SKIES WILL CLEAR.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...BOYNE


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