Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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FXUS63 KARX 010936
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
436 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 436 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST ARE:

1)CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA...WHERE A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN
EFFECT FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM TODAY. ELEVATED FIRE DANGER EXPECTED
ACROSS WESTERN INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN TODAY.

2)STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO
50 MPH POSSIBLE IN THE OPEN AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
NORTHEAST IOWA. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS FROM 1
PM TO 6PM TODAY.

3)THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
WEST THIS EVENING...POTENTIALLY PRODUCING SOME GUSTY WINDS DURING
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

4)POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AGAIN
ON THURSDAY...DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAINFALL WE RECEIVE TONIGHT.

AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TODAY AHEAD
OF A VIGOROUS TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A COLD
FRONT WILL EDGE EAST ACROSS MINNESOTA AND IOWA THIS AFTERNOON AND
WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE ITS WAY INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN LATE THIS
EVENING. MOISTURE RETURN IS A PROBLEM WITH THIS FEATURE AS DEW
POINTS DOWNSTREAM ACROSS KANSAS INTO MISSOURI ARE STILL IN THE
MID TO LOWER 30S. HIGHER DEW POINTS...50S...WERE NOTED
ACROSSOKLAHOMAINTO ARKANSAS...ALONG AND SOUTH OF ONGOING
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY . THIS LOOKS TO DELAY THE RETURN OF
THE MOISTURE INTO THE LOCAL AREA UNTIL THIS EVENING AND IT APPEARS
THE BULK OF THE FORECAST MODELS HAVE NOT LATCHED ONTO THIS YET.
THE COMBINATION OF THE WARM AIRMASS...DEEP MIXING...AND THE
DELAYED MOISTURE RETURN WILL RESULT IN INCREASED WILD FIRE DANGER
ACROSS THE AREA WITH DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW MIXING TO JUST ABOVE 900 MB THIS AFTERNOON WHICH COULD YIELD WIND
GUSTS OF 45 TO 50 MPH WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...WITH GUSTS
OF 30 TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE  ACROSS WESTERN INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREAS TODAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. FOCUS THEN TURNS TO THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. NAM 0-3 MUCAPE VALUES CLIMB
TO AROUND 900 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE NEAR THE FRONT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON CLOSER TO THE I-35 CORRIDOR WITH THESE VALUES QUICKLY
WANING AS THE FRONT EDGES EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA. 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES ARE INT HE 30 TO 35 KT RANGE WITH A FEW SUPERCELL OR
MULTICELL STORMS POSSIBLE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON BUT THIS ACTIVITY WILL
BE WEAKENING AS IT EDGES EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE DRY
LOW LEVEL AIR IN PLACE THERE  COULD BE SOME GUSTY WINDS OUT OF
SOME OF THE STORMS AS THEY DECAY AND WORK EASTWARD. SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL EXIT TO THE EAST BY THURSDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

LOW PRESSURE PASSES ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO ON THURSDAY PUSHING A
DRY SLOT ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN. MEANWHILE A WEAK SHORTWAVE
MOVED ACROSS IOWA/NORTHERN ILLINOIS. VERY DRY AIR WILL PUSHING
INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TO THE AREA ONCE AGAIN...DEPENDING ON HOW
MUCH RAIN FALLS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DEW POINTS SHOULD FALL THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS WINDS INCREASE. PLAN ON AFTERNOON MINIMUM
RH VALUES FALLING INTO THE THE 20S WITH SOME UPPER TEENS POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. PLAN
ON WEST WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 35 MPH
POSSIBLE. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE DAY ACROSS
NORTHEAST  IOWA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN AS THE SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH. COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE 40S. A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES TO BRING SOME RAIN OR
SNOW CHANCES TO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND THEN MORE ACTIVE
WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN BY NEST WEEK AS FLOW ALOFT ATTEMPTS TO
TURN SOUTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

CLOUDS...
EXPECT A FEW WISPS OF HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO
WED...WITH LOWERING CLOUD DECKS MOVING IN WITH A COLD FRONT TOWARD
00Z THU. COULD DROP INTO MVFR WITH THE FRONT SPAWNED SHOWERS/STORMS
FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE EARLY/MID EVENING WED.

WINDS...
THIS IS THE BIGGEST AVIATION CONCERN AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. DRY
ATMOSPHERE WILL ENHANCE MIXING...AND GUSTS AROUND 35KTS AT KRST ARE
LIKELY. IN ADDITION...DECAYING SHOWERS/STORMS OR GUSTS FROM STORMS
IN THE EVENING WILL ENHANCE THE ALREADY STRONG WINDS.

COLD FRONT LOOKS TO PASS ACROSS KRST AROUND 06Z...CLOSER TO 09Z FOR
KLSE.

RAP/NAM12 BUFKIT SOUNDINGS HINTING AT A SHORT WINDOW OF LLWS
POTENTIAL AT KRST BETWEEN 12-15Z. SFC WINDS ARE RAMPING UP BY THAT
TIME ALREADY...AND ITS BORDERLINE. WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF
FORECAST FOR NOW. KLSE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL AVOID LLWS CONCERNS.

WX/VSBY...
EXPECTING A PERIOD OF SHRA/TS EARLY WED EVENING. THUNDER
THREAT WILL BE ON THE WANE AS THE FRONT MOVES IN...WITH INSTABILITY
DECREASING AND MOVING INTO A DRIER AIRMASS. PROBABLY A HIGHER THREAT
AT KRST THEN KLSE. MAY ONLY WARRANT A -SHRA VCTS. CERTAINLY
SOMETHING TO WATCH WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCED
GUSTINESS AROUND ANY SHOWER OR STORM.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...TODAY AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 436 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
IOWA AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA WITH ELEVATED CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO
WESTERN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO
THE 70S TODAY WITH AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING INTO
THE UPPER 20S.

SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA/NORTHEAST IOWA TODAY...SOUTH WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH. A RED FLAG
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 1PM TO 7PM.
WINONA...HOUSTON...ALLAMAKEE..AND CLAYTON COUNTIES HAVE NOT BEEN
INCLUDED WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER AND MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES LOOK TO BE A LITTLE HIGHER.
HOWEVER...INCREASED FIRE ACITIVITY CAN BE EXPECTED SO WILL ISSUE A
SPEACIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR THESE AREAS HIGHLIGHTING ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

WESTERN INTO CENTRAL WISCOSNIN TODAY...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO
40 MPH POSSIBLE. LOOK FOR AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO FALL
INTO THE UPPER 20S. WILL ALSO ISSUE A SPEACIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
FOR THESE AREAS HIGHLIGHTING ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

ELEVAGTED FIRE WEATHER CONDITONS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA ON THURSDAY AS AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALL
INTO THE 20S AND WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH
POSSIBLE.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR MNZ079-086-087-094-095.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR MNZ086-087-094-095.

IA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR IAZ008>010-018-019-029.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR IAZ008>010-018-019-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION.....RIECK
FIRE WEATHER...WETENKAMP


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