Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KFGF 221742
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1242 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. NO CHANGES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 928 AM CDT WED APR 22 2015

NO UPDATE NECESSARY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 710 AM CDT WED APR 22 2015

FCST IN GOOD SHAPE. SOME MID CLOUDS DROPPING INTO DVL BASIN AS
EXPECTED. SOME HIGH CLOUDS IN THE FAR EAST MIXED WITH STRATOCU AND
CLEAR IN BETWEEN. NO CHANGES NEEDED TO FCST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT WED APR 22 2015

SKIES HAVE CLEARED OVER ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHEASTERN FCST AREA.
THERE IS AN AREA OF MID CLOUDS IN SASKATCHEWAN AND MODELS WANT TO
BRING SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST INTO ERN ND THIS
MORNING BEFORE DRYING IT UP. OTHERWISE SUNSHINE TODAY IN ERN ND.
OVER NW/WCNTRL MN START OUT MOSTLY SUNNY BUT SOME CU LIKELY TO
FORM. ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT AROUND THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW/SFC LOW
IN THE THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND THE HIGH INTO WRN ND TO KEEP A
NORTHWEST WIND 10 TO 20 KTS IN THE FCST AREA...BIT HIGHER AT TIMES
IN WCNTRL MN WHERE STILL GOT ABT 25 KTS TO MIX DOWN.

TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVE EAST AND
INTO THE RRV. THIS WILL MEAN LIGHTER WIND REGIME. SKIES WILL BE
GENERALLY CLEAR. TEMPS WILL WARM VERY SLOWLY WITH MORE SUNSHINE.
PREV FCST HIGH TEMPS LOOKED GOOD AND LITTLE CHANGE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT WED APR 22 2015

MODELS STILL DIFFER A BIT WITH THE NEXT SHORT WAVE PROGGED TO
IMPACT THE AREA LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. 00Z RUNS SEEMED A BIT
MORE MOIST THAN RUNS 24 HOURS HOURS AGO. SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE EAST
OUT OF THE PAC NW 500 MB TROUGH IN COMBINATION WITH A SHORT WAVE
MOVING NORTHEAST FROM NEVADA AND UTAH AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY. EXPECTING CLOUDS TO ADVANCE INTO THE AREA THU EVE FOLLOWED
BY SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION SPREADING INTO CNTRL AND THEN ERN ND
BY 06Z- 12Z FRI PERIOD AND THEN CONTINUING OVER THE AREA DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATE FRI NIGHT. TEMP PROFILES
SHOW MOSTLY -RA EVENT...THOUGH USING TEMPS ALOFT SOME LIGHT SNOW
PSBL LATE THU NIGHT IN DVL BASIN AND IN NW MN LATER FRI NIGHT.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN INCONSISTENCY
WITH RESPECT TO UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFICATION AND PROGRESSION OF SFC
SYSTEM ACROSS THE AREA. THUS...USED A BLENDED SOLN FOR THIS PACKAGE.

GENERAL TREND IS FOR UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFICATION HELPING TO WARM TEMPS
IN THE LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD. WILL SEE RETURN FLOW AND AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AHEAD OF SFC LOW...BUT WITH LOWERED
CONFIDENCE...WENT WITH TRENDS WITH RESPECT TO PCPN. LOOKING FOR
CHANCES OF PCPN LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AND SLIGHT COOLING TO END
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL GUST AT TIMES NEAR OR ABOVE 20 KTS FROM THE RRV EASTWARD THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING QUICKLY SUBSIDING THIS EVENING AND
BECOMING LIGHT TONIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SFC RIDGE AXIS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT WED APR 22 2015

DRIER AIR WILL PUSH ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA
TODAY...BUT A WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH APPROACHING SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WINDS BELOW CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA.
THEREFORE...WILL CANCEL THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA COUNTIES.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/RIDDLE
AVIATION...VOELKER
FIRE WEATHER...HOPKINS





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.