Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 181736
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1236 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

NOT SEEING QUITE AS MUCH CLOUD COVER AS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ND SO WILL GO AHEAD AND DECREASE CLOUD COVER IN THAT AREA FOR THE
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE MORE THAN EXPECTED
THERE TOO. ANY PCPN SHOULD HOLD OFF ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN FA
UNTIL AROUND 03Z SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

NORTHERN STREAM FORECAST TO AMPLIFY TODAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFF THE
WESTERN COAST OF CANADA WILL BUILD AND SLOWLY SHIFT EAST INTO
WESTERN NORTH AMERICA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL LOW EAST
OF THE FOUR CORNERS WILL ALSO MOVE EAST AND BE PICKED UP BY AND
PRECEDE AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH NOW OVER ALTA. PEN UPPER LEVEL WAVE
CLOSES OFF BY SUN MORNING

PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL BEGIN TO RISE TODAY AND RISE TO AROUND AN
INCH IN THE SOUTHEAST ZONES BY 12Z SUN THEN DECREASES AND SHIFTS
EAST. BETTER THAN 100M HEIGHT FALLS OCCURS EAST OF ALTA TROUGH
THROUGH 84 HOURS. GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO SOUTHEAST
ZONES TONIGHT ON A LOW LEVEL JET. GOOD LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ALSO
OVER THE SOUTHEAST ZONES TONIGHT. THESE FEATURE SHIFT EAST/NORTHEAST
ON SUN.

INSTABILITY SHOWERS EXPECTED SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING AS COLDER AIR
MOVES IN ALOFT. MORE INSTABILITY SHOWERS EXPECTED MON AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE WRAP AROUND PRECIP EXPECTED MAINLY OVER NORTHERN MN MON
AND MON NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

TUESDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT NW FLOW ALOFT FOR
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BESIDES SOME LINGERING SHOWERS EARLY TUESDAY
FOR THE MN PINES FROM DEPARTING CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT THERE IS A DRY
FORECAST WITH 850MB TEMPS RANGING FROM NEGATIVE 2C TO 8C...YIELDING
MAX TEMPS IN THE 40S...BELOW MID APRIL NORMALS BY 5 TO 10 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

CIGS WILL INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...GRADUALLY LOWERING THIS EVENING. A PERIOD OF RAIN
IS STILL EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. CURRENT INDICATIONS
SUGGEST THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL AFFECT KFAR AND KBJI...WITH LESS
INTENSE RAINFALL TO THE NORTHWEST. THUS...ANTICIPATE A PERIOD OF
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT KFAR AND KBJI TONIGHT...AND LIKELY
KTVF AS WELL...WITH KGFK ON THE EDGE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...TG






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