Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 220440
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1140 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

WINDS SETTLING DOWN A BIT. FAIR SKIES OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH CLOUDS
OVER NORTHCENTRAL MN SLOWLY MOVG EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES
BEGINNING TO DROP BELOW FREEZING MOST LOCALES. NO SIG UPDATES
NEEDED THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE HOW FAST THE CLOUDS MOVE OFF TO
THE EAST TONIGHT AND THE RESULTING TEMPS. AS OF 3 PM THERE WAS SOME
CLEARING WORKING INTO THE FAR NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY AND THE
DEVILS LAKE REGION. THEREFORE WOULD EXPECT THIS CLEARING TO CONTINUE
TO SPREAD SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING. THE CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY LINGER
THE LONGEST ACROSS NORTHWEST MN AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LAKE OF
THE WOODS TO KBJI CORRIDOR. THE GUSTY NORTHWEST-NORTH WINDS WILL
STAY UP INTO THE EVENING THEN BECOME THE LOWEST ACROSS THE FAR
WESTERN FA LATE. SO THE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH DROP WILL OCCUR ACROSS
ESPECIALLY THE FAR WESTERN FA ONCE THE WINDS DROP OFF AND SUNRISE.
HAVE GONE WITH LOWER 20S BUT IF WINDS DROP OFF SOONER WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME UPPER TEENS IN THE TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS.
RIBBON OF HIGH PRESSURE WORKS IN FOR WED. ONCE AGAIN WINDS WILL PICK
UP A LITTLE BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. NOT LOOKING AT WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA BY ANY MEANS...BUT STILL SOME GUSTY N-NW WINDS IN
THE 20-25 MPH RANGE. COMBINED WITH FALLING HUMIDITY LEVELS...WILL BE
LOOKING AT FIRE WEATHER PARAMETERS CLOSE TO CRITERIA ONCE AGAIN IN
THE SOUTHEAST FA. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

RIBBON OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE FA INTO THU AND FINALLY
WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER. TEMP RECOVERY REMAINS SLOW HOWEVER. A
LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY ENTERS THE FORECAST BY THU NIGHT WITH THE
AMERICAN MODELS DRY AND THE ECMWF/GEM WETTER. FOR NOW WILL STAY
WITH A DRY FORECAST AND SEE WHAT LATER RUNS HAVE IN STORE. DID
KEEP THE PCPN CHANCES ON FRI THOUGH...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE MANY
DIFFERENCES IN REGARD TO WHERE AND HOW MUCH.

FRIDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...MODELS HAVE BECOME LESS CONSISTENT AND THUS
LESS RELIABLE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THE MAIN ISSUE DEALS
WITH THE DEEP UPPER LOW THAT WILL BE MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST AND
STRONG WAVES ACROSS THE WESTERN COAST. THE PROGRESSION OF THESE
FEATURES WILL AFFECT THE AMPLITUDE OF THE UPPER PATTERN ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...AND DETERMINE IF ANY UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL
AFFECT THE REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

EXPECT MAINLY FAIR SKIES WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...WITH VFR CIGS ALG A
FGN-BJI-SAZ LINE MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS NCNTRL MN. EXPECT
FAIR SKIES OVER THE FA ON TUESDAY WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING AND GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING FROM THE
FORENNON INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS WC MN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS OVERALL WILL BE A BIT LIGHTER REGION WIDE AS HIGH
PRESSURE APPROACHES...BUT GUSTS ABOVE 25 KTS ARE EXPECTED OVER WC MN
DURING THE AFTERNOON. GOOD MIXING SHOULD ALLOW RH TO FALL INTO THE
25 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE...LOCALLY LOWER IN SPOTS. HAVE ISSUED A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR WC MN COUNTIES FOR WED AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR MNZ030>032-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GUST
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/TG
AVIATION...GUST
FIRE WEATHER...MAKOWSKI






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