Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 262001
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
401 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS WELL OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST
ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS INDICATES SFC LOW PRESSURE NOW WELL OFF THE SE
COAST...WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED OVER SC. WHILE PARENT SFC
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER CANADA...JUST ENOUGH NW CONFLUENT
FLOW ALOFT HAS ENABLED SFC RIDGE TO EXTEND INTO THE LOCAL AREA
THIS AFTN. THE RESULT HAS BEEN A NICER AFTN THAN ANTICIPATED...PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES NOW COVER MOST OF THE REGION...ONLY NE NC AND SOUTH
CENTRAL VA ZONES NEAR THE NC BORDER REMAIN CLOUDY. LITTLE TO
NOTHING ON THE RADAR...WILL MAINTAIN A 20% POP IN NE NC THROUGH
22Z...OTHERWISE WILL HAVE A DRY FORECAST TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES
INTO EARLY EVENING WILL AVG IN THE LOW 60S OVER INTERIOR NRN 1/2
OF THE CWA...TO THE MID 50S NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND IN NE NC.

ONLY CONCERN LATER TONIGHT WILL BE FOR POTENTIAL FOG DUE TO WET
GROUND AND CLEARING SKIES. SINCE SOME DRYING HAS PREVAILED THIS
AFTN...AND WITH SFC DEW PTS NOW FALLING INTO THE 30S IN MANY
AREAS...THINKING IS THAT FOG WILL BE PATCHY IF IT DEVELOPS AT ALL.
ALSO...NOT REALLY AN IDEAL PRESSURE PATTERN FOR FOG AS SFC HIGH
DOES NOT BUILD OVER THE AREA AND SOME ADDITIONAL MIXING IS
POSSIBLE. FOR NOW DID NOT INCLUDE FOG IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST.
LOWS TONIGHT MAINLY IN THE 40-45 F RANGE...BUT SOME INTERIOR
SECTIONS COULD DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S. VARIABLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BROAD UPR LVL LO PRES EXTENDING FM CANADIAN MARITIMES TO SE GREAT LAKES
WILL RMN IN PLACE THROUGH MON NIGHT. S/W DIVING SE THROUGH THE
MDATLC STATES ON MON BRINGS VRB CLDS AND LO POPS - ESP N AND E
LOCATIONS (ALG W/ CONTD COOL CONDS). HI TEMPS MON IN THE L60S NE
TO THE MID TO PERHAPS UPPER 60S ELSW. BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR MON
NIGHT...AND SLIGHTLY WARMER ON TUE W/ INCREASED AMTS OF
SUNSHINE...HIGHS MNLY INTO THE MID 60S AT THE COAST TO U60S TO
AROUND 70 F INLAND. INCREASING CLOUDS/MOISTURE ON WED AS SFC HIGH
DRIFTS OFF THE COAST...THOUGH BULK OF DEEP MOISTURE AND POPS LOOK
TO HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE WED...WILL MAINTAIN 20-40% POPS IN THE AFTN
SW...DRY NE. HIGHS INTO THE MID 60S SW TO AROUND 70 F ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FORECAST BEGINNING WED NIGHT REMAINS WEIGHTED
TOWARD THE WPC/ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH BRINGS LOW PRESSURE UP THE SE
COAST WED NIGHT...THEN DEEPENS THE LOW OFF THE OBX ON THURSDAY
BEFORE QUICKLY SHOVING IT WELL OUT TO SEA THURSDAY NIGHT. BASED ON
THIS SOLUTION...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC POPS (20%) NORTH AND CHC
POPS (30-50%) ACROSS THE SOUTH WED NIGHT. WILL EXPAND CHC POPS
(30-40%) INTO NORTHERN AREAS ON THURSDAY WITH HIGH CHC TO LIKELY
POPS (50-60%) ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS (HIGHEST FAR SE)...BEFORE
DWINDLING RAIN CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW
PULLS AWAY. THE ECMWF DOES BRING A PIECE OF NORTHERN BRANCH ENERGY
SOUTH INTO THE FA THURS NIGHT WHICH MAY ACTUALLY LINGER PCPN CHANCES
INTO MIDDAY FRIDAY. FOR NOW...WILL COVER THE POSSIBILITY WITH SLIGHT
CHC POPS. DRY WX THEN RETURNS LATER FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE PREVAILS. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S THU/FRI...EXCEPT SOME UPR 50S
IMMEDIATE COASTAL LOCALES. (NORMAL HIGHS ARE IN THE LOW/MID 70S.)
HIGHS THEN WARM INTO THE MID/UPR 60S AT THE COAST TO MID/UPR 70S
INLAND BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 17Z...THE MAIN CLOUD BAND HAS PUSHED SOUTH INTO SRN VA/NC. BKN
STRATOCU HAS DEVELOPED N OF THE BAND. N WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS ARE
FORECAST WITH HIGHER WINDS AT ECG.

THE SKY SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR AROUND SUNSET. WITH WINDS
BECOMING CALM OR LIGHT DURING THE EVENING...CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHY
FOG. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH...MID LEVEL
CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS TOWARD SUNRISE WOULD LIMIT
FOG. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS DO NOT SUGGEST FOG EXCEPT AT ECG. CONFIDENCE
WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION WITH THE 18Z ISSUANCE.

VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY. THERE IS A SLGT CHC FOR SHOWERS AT
SBY MONDAY AFTN.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES AND EVENTUALLY DEVELOPS A
SURFACE LOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS LOW INTENSIFIES OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST AND MAY PRODUCE PCPN WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS. IFR CONDS
ARE PSBL. DRY WEATHER RETURNS FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ANZ658 WITH SEAS
OUT AROUND 20 NM AROUND 5 FT.

HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT THRU MIDDAY MONDAY FOR
RELATIVELY LIGHT N-NW WINDS. LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL
BRING AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS TO THE LOCAL AREA LATE MONDAY THRU
TUES MORNING. SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON ALL THE WATERS DURING
THIS TIME. WAVES WILL BUILD TO 3-4 FT ON THE BAY MON NIGHT...WITH
SEAS BUILDING TO 4-5 FT ON THE OCEAN. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TUE AFTN
THRU WED NIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA CONDITIONS IS LIKELY FOR ALL
WATERS THU/FRI AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE COAST.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ633-650-652-654-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...JDM


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