Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 060841
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
341 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM REMAINS ON INCOMING PRECIPITATION AND THE
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

THE FIRST WAVE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVED INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL
SHORTLY AROUND 07 UTC. THE HRRR DID A DECENT JOB OF TIMING THIS
LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND HAS IT DIMINISHING AS IT
PROGRESSES NORTH. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED WITH
THE LINE AND HAVE KEPT WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AT LINTON SHOWED HEAVY
RAIN WHILE A SHOWER WENT OVER AND REPORTED 0.20 INCHES. AT FIRST
GLANCE IT APPEARS THIS SYSTEM MAY WELL BRING THE MUCH NEEDED
RAINFALL FORECASTED.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO WESTERN ND AROUND 18 UTC
WEDNESDAY AND INTO CENTRAL ND LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
COINCIDE WITH 2-3 MORE EMBEDDED IMPULSES LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS BEFORE THE MAIN WAVE MOVES THROUGH WED NIGHT. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL SHOULD BE EXPERIENCED IN THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH
HIGHER AMOUNTS IN PROXIMITY TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES
SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE STATE...WITH STORM TOTAL
AMOUNTS STILL DEPICTED FROM 0.5-1.5 INCHES. WITH BOTH THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF GENERATING 900-1200 J/KG OF MUCAPE OVER CENTRAL AND EAST
ALONG TO EAST OF THE FROPA...LOCALLY HEAVIER RAINFALL (GREATER
THAN AN INCH) WITH CONVECTION WILL BE VERY POSSIBLE CONSIDERING
PWATS AROUND 1.25".

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

EXITING SYSTEM THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT WILL LEAVE BEHIND BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. ANOTHER
ROUND OF PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK FOR MAINLY SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA.

PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY WANE THURSDAY/THURSDAY EVENING FROM
WEST TO EAST AS A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE EXITING THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY MORNING. HOWEVER A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT
BEFORE ENDING AFTER MIDNIGHT. COLD AIR ADVECTION ENSUES THURSDAY
WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...850MB TEMPERATURES REMAIN AROUND +1C FROM
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 50S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE MID 30S. AREAS OF FROST STILL APPEAR LIKELY DURING THE LATE
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL
REACH INTO THE LOWER 60S TUESDAY. DRY BUT COOL FOR FRIDAY...THEN
THE NEXT CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL EJECT OUT FROM THE SOUTHWEST CONUS
AND INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY MONDAY. THE LATEST GFS KEEPS
THE PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO THE SOUTHWEST AND JUST ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE BORDER FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF
ALSO FOLLOWS THIS IDEA THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT THEN PUSHES
THE PRECIPITATION BACK INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY MORNING. THE SUPERBLEND ADVERTISES A ECMWF SOLUTION DURING
THIS PERIOD. IF THIS DOES COME TRUE...850MB TEMPS OF -2C MAY YIELD
SOME WET SNOW. ANY SHIFT FURTHER NORTH WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL NEED
MONITORING AS PRECIPITATION TYPES AND CHANCES WOULD CHANGE. DRIER
WEATHER SLATED FOR LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL
MAINTAIN A SOUTHEAST WIND TONIGHT. LOW CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE
LATE TONIGHT WITH MVFR AND SCATTERED IFR CEILINGS SPREADING NORTH
INTO KDIK-KBIS-KJMS JUST AFTER 12 UTC AND KMOT-KISN AROUND 17
UTC. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY WILL KEEP MVFR CEILINGS
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE BUT NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PUT IN ANY TAF AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...MM



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