Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KBTV 040153
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
953 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT...WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE NORTH COUNTRY
ON MONDAY. THIS FRONT WILL PRODUCE BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS ON
MONDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING WELL INTO THE 70S AND LOWER 80S. THESE WARM TEMPERATURES...
BREEZY WINDS...AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS...WILL CREATE NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON
MONDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT ON MONDAY NIGHT
WITH COOLER AIR ARRIVING ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 953 PM EDT SUNDAY...OTHER THAN A FEW CLOUDS...LOOKING AT
MOSTLY CLEAR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT AND GOING FORECAST
HAS THIS COVERED WELL. THE DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE HAS ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO FALL SHARPLY NOW THAT THE SUN HAS SET. JUST NEED
TO TWEAK A FEW TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO MATCH CURRENT
CONDITIONS...OTHERWISE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT LOWS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT SUNDAY...THE FORECAST FOCUS ON MONDAY WILL BE
POTENTIAL CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...FROM THE COMBINATION
OF LOW RH VALUES...BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS...AND VERY DRY FINE
FUELS FROM THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL LATELY. SEE FIRE
WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR COMPLETE DETAILS.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE...A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL INCREASE THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN AND WESTERN CWA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. BTV 4KM AT KMSS
SHOWS DEEP MIXING WILL OCCUR ON MONDAY AFTERNOON THRU
750MB...WHICH SUPPORTS TRANSPORT WINDS TO THE SFC BETWEEN 35 AND
40 KNOTS. ALSO...FAVORABLE ALIGNED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW
WITH ORIENTATION OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...WILL HELP TO
ENHANCE WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THIS REGION ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.
EXPECTING SLIGHTLY LESS WIND AT SARANAC LAKE...DUE TO LOCATION OF
STRONGEST 925MB TO 850MB WIND FIELDS ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY...BUT THINKING GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 35 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE. MEANWHILE...SOUNDINGS AT PLATTSBURGH/BTV AND NEWPORT
VT...SHOW GOOD DEEP LAYER MIXING...BUT THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD IS
WEAKER...SUPPORTING SFC WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 30 MPH. THE WIND
IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER OVER CENTRAL...EASTERN...AND SOUTHERN VT
ON MONDAY...WITH THE STRONGEST WIND FIELDS AND ASSOCIATED GRADIENT
TO THE NORTH. THIS MIXING WILL ALSO HELP TO TRANSFER SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR AROUND 850MB TO THE SURFACE ON MONDAY BEFORE DEEPER
MOISTURE ARRIVES WITH BOUNDARY...SUPPORTING MINIMUM RH VALUES IN
THE 22% TO 28% SOUTHERN SECTION TO 28% TO 38% IN THE NORTH ON
MONDAY. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO...WITH VALUES
BETWEEN 8-10C ON MONDAY...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID 70S MTNS TO
L80S VALLEYS...WITH MAYBE A FEW MID 80S IF ENOUGH SUN OCCURS.
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AND MORE HUMID NEAR THE INFLUENCE OF LAKE
CHAMPLAIN.

MEANWHILE...850 TO 500 MB MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHWEST ACROSS OUR CWA LATE MONDAY...PRODUCING SOME CLOUDS AND
CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS TOWARD SUNSET...ESPECIALLY SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY. BASED ON PROGGED POSITION OF NARROW RIBBON OF ENHANCED MID
LVL MOISTURE WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY BY
00Z TUESDAY AND SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

SFC BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED LIFT WILL CONT TO IMPACT OUR CWA ON
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. GIVEN SOUTHWEST
FLOW OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS...EXPECT QPF/POP SHADOWING ACROSS THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...WITH VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
THINKING QPF WILL BE MAINLY TERRAIN TERRAIN...WITH THE HIGHEST
QPF VALUES BETWEEN 0.10 AND 0.20 OF AN INCH ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS
AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GREEN MTNS ON MONDAY NIGHT. A RUMBLE
OF THUNDER IS POSSIBLE MONDAY EVENING...WITH FRONT...BUT SFC
INSTABILITY IS MINIMUM WITH CAPE VALUES < 200 J/KG SO WILL NOT
MENTION AT THE MOMENT. GIVEN INITIALLY THE VERY DRY SFC
CONDITIONS...EXPECT SOME PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS
VIRGA...ESPECIALLY MONDAY EVENING. WILL MENTION LIKELY POPS MTNS
AND CHANCE ELSEWHERE. TEMPS WILL COOL INTO THE 40S MTNS AND 50S
VALLEYS...HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS COUPLE OF NIGHTS...BECAUSE OF
CLOUDS AND WIND.

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...SFC BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL BE
JUST SOUTH OF OUR CWA BY 12Z TUESDAY...BUT EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. WILL CONT TO CARRY CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CWA...JUST IN CASE A SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS. PROGGED 85H
TEMPS DROP SEVERAL DEGREES ON TUESDAY AND SUPPORT HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE 60S TO NEAR 70...STILL SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AFT SUNSET. SFC
RIDGE WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND COOL TEMPS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 254 PM EDT SUNDAY...MAINLY DRY AND PLEASANT SPRING WEATHER
WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT
FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD RESULTING IN HIGH FORECASTER CONFIDENCE.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY. EXPECT SOME CLOUDS...BUT
RISK OF PRECIPITATION RATHER LOW. HAVE CONTINUED TO INDICATE JUST
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR A FEW RAIN SHOWERS.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AND THEN BECOME STATIONARY SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST NEXT WEEKEND. LITTLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT HOWEVER...AS
500 MB RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. EXPECT VARIABLE CLOUDS AND
THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS BOTH DAYS ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY.

MAX TEMPS WILL AVERAGE A GOOD 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. THE
WARMEST DAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE FRIDAY WHEN 850 MB TEMPS REACH +12
TO +14C. WITH SOME SUN...80 DEGREES CERTAINLY REACHABLE. CLEAR
NIGHTS EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL ALLOW FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. RETURN OF CLOUDS
WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM COOLING AS MUCH LATE IN THE WEEK AND NEXT
WEEKEND WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS TO START THE PERIOD AS THE
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL GIVE WAY AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE NORTH COUNTRY. LOOK FOR MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING INTO
THE AREA LATE MORNING...ALONG WITH AFTERNOON CUMULUS AND SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...WITH
POSSIBLE SHOWERS AS WELL IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. WINDS INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST MONDAY WITH GUSTS 20-30 KNOTS AROUND
MID DAY...MAINLY AT KMSS/KSLK/KPBG/KBTV.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z TUESDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR BUT WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR
IN SHOWERS AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

00Z WEDNESDAY-00Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH WEAK SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILING FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30
MPH WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 11 AM AND 4 PM MONDAY....WITH MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BETWEEN 28% AND 38%. A FEW HIGHER GUSTS
TO NEAR 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND
PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE
LOCATED ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND
PARTS OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY INTO NORTHERN VT...WHILE THE LOWEST
RH VALUES WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN VT. THESE CONDITIONS COMBINED
WITH 60 TO 90 DAY DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL PRECIPITATION DEFICITS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES HAVE RESULTED IN FINE FUELS BECOMING VERY DRY BELOW
2000 FEET...ACCORDING TO THE VERMONT DEPARTMENT OF FOREST...PARKS
AND REC AND NEW YORK STATE DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL
CONSERVATION. GIVEN THE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...WE
WILL HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL THREAT WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
AT THIS TIME.

AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND
NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AFTER 3 PM MONDAY...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL INCREASE AS CLOUDS AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL MOISTURE
OVERSPREAD THE REGION...WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING BY
EVENING. THESE SHOWERS WILL SPREAD EAST INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
AND MOST OF VERMONT OVERNIGHT...BUT PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT
AND MAINLY CONFINED TO THE MTNS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...EVENSON/MV
FIRE WEATHER...TABER


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.