Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 031754
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
154 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. HIGHS WILL BE
GENERALLY NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TODAY HAS ALLOWED FOR LIGHT WINDS AND FAIR
WEATHER. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW 80S THIS AFTERNOON.

MID-LEVEL CLOUDS MAY LINGER OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW. HIGH CLOUDS
MAY ALSO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE THROUGH MOVES INTO THE
AREA. HAVE KEPT LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND MODEL GUIDANCE IN THE MID
50S. PERSISTENCE WOULD SUGGEST LOWS BELOW GUIDANCE...HOWEVER
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT MAY HINDER RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST
AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. ALOFT...THE MODELS SHOW A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH LINGERING NEAR THE FORECAST AREA CAUGHT IN THE RIDGE. THE
NAM MOS AND SREF MEAN HAVE POPS NEAR 30 PERCENT IN THE NORTHWEST
PART MONDAY. WE KEPT THE DRY FORECAST BECAUSE OF SHALLOW MOISTURE
AND LACK OF A SURFACE FEATURE. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SURFACE RIDGING LINGERING THROUGH THE
MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT
WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...AND THERE
HAS BEEN A TREND WITH MOISTURE EXTENDING FARTHER WESTWARD AND
TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA MAINLY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WE ADDED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE EAST SECTION. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BECAUSE OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE DEVELOPMENT
AND PLACEMENT OF THE OFFSHORE SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING CALM THIS
EVENING. FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE REGION AND
MAY LINGER OVERNIGHT. A SEA BREEZE HAS FORMED AND COULD PASS OGB THIS
EVENING. WINDS WOULD REMAIN LIGHT HOWEVER THE DIRECTION MAY SHIFT
FROM OUT OF THE SE.

THE AIRMASS REMAINS DRY...HINDERING FOG FORMATION. HOWEVER AGS MAY
HAVE REDUCED VISIBILITIES AGAIN TONIGHT FROM SHALLOW FOG OFF OF THE
RIVER.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








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