Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
000
FXUS64 KEPZ 042202
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
300 PM MDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING
WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING. FOR AREAS EAST OF
THE RIO GRANDE A THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS IN PLACE WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE REGION DRYS
OUT TUESDAY WITH THE RETURN OF DEEP WESTERLY FLOW. ONLY A FEW
LINGERING STORMS LOOK POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS. FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK EXPECT NEAR SEASONAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WITH MILD
MORNINGS. AFTERNOONS WILL BE BREEZY AND CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
INGREDIENTS HAVE COME TOGETHER OVER AREAS EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW HAS BROUGHT
AND KEPT SURFACE DEWPOINTS UP AND PROVIDED GOOD VEERING WIND
SHEAR. THIS HAS MEANT PLENTY OF CAPE AND LOW LI`S. THE RESULTS
HAVE BEEN SEVERAL SEVERE STORMS...OUR FIRST OF THE YEAR. RIGHT
BEFORE THE STORMS INCREASED IN INTENSITY WE ISSUED OUR FIRST
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OF THE YEAR FOR OTERO AND HUDSPETH
COUNTIES. THIS IS WHERE THE STRONGEST STORMS HAVE BEEN. WE EXPECT
THIS TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING.
TO THE WEST THERE WILL BE STORMS ALSO IN THE EVENING HOURS...BUT
THEY SHOULD LACK THE STRENGTH THE EASTERN STORMS HAVE.

TUESDAY THIS FIRST UPPER LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HAVE LIFTED
NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION AND DEEPER DRY AIR WILL FILTER IN
ON DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS SHOULD SCOUR OUT MUCH OF THE
MOISTURE AND LEAVE ONLY THE MOUNTAINS WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR ANY
STORMS. THE LOWLANDS SHOULD BE DRY FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND STARTING TUESDAY.

THE PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK KEEPS OUR AREA SOUTH OF A
LARGE PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL BE SLOWLY TRACKING EAST AND
PASSING TO OUR NORTH FRI/SAT OVER THE FOUR CORNERS. THIS PLACES
US IN A PERSISTENT DRY WEST/SW FLOW PATTERN. WITH THE SYSTEM
PASSING NORTH WE WILL BE IN REGION OF THE PATTERN WITH THE
STRONGER WINDS AS LEE SURFACE TROUGHING HANGS TO OUR EAST
AND A TIGHT GRADIENT ALOFT MIXING DOWN STRONGER WIND EACH
AFTERNOON.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WE COME UNDER SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT WHILE
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE SETTLES OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THIS HELPS TO CUT OUR WINDS ALOFT AND ALLOWS FOR A SOUTHEASTERLY
PUSH FROM THE GULF. THE RESULT WILL LIKELY BE AN INCREASING
MOISTURE INGEST WITH THE DRY LINE BACKING WEST INTO OUR EASTERN
ZONES. THIS WILL BE OUR NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR STORMS AND
RAIN...BEGINNING TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 05/00Z-06/00Z...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST AT ALL TAF SITES THRU THE PERIOD WITH
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS 20-25KTS.
-TSRA SCT-BKN080CB POSSIBLE ACROSS ENTIRE REGION UNTIL 12Z. OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN AND AT KTCS -TSRA UNTIL END OF PRD. STRONG WIND
GUSTS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY COULD EXIST NEAR STORMS.

77-PAZOS

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM SOCAL MOVES
EAST THROUGH THE AREA A CHANCE OF WETTING RAIN WILL EXIST FOR ALL
FIRE WEATHER ZONES. WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE MOST ACTIVITY WILL BE
HIGH BASED SHOWERS THAT COULD PRODUCE ERRATIC AND GUSTY WINDS WITH
LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION. ALL ZONES EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE WILL
HAVE A BETTER CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING WETTING RAINS. THESE STORMS
COULD PROCUDE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...STRONG WINDS AND LIGHTNING.
A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE IN THE
NORTHERN ZONES THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. DRY AND WARM WEATHER WILL
PREVAIL WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH BREEZY TO WINDY
AFTERNOONS.

MIN RH VALUES TODAY WILL WILL BE IN THE 20S FOR THE LOWLANDS AND THE
GILA WILDERNESS. THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS WILL SEE MIN RH VALUES IN
THE UPPER 30S TO 40S. MIN RH VALUES WILL STEADILY DECREASE OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS DEEP WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS RESULTING IN POSSIBLE
NEAR RED FLAG CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY.

&&

77-PAZOS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 59  81  57  84  59 /  10   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           54  82  54  84  53 /  30   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              51  80  49  84  49 /  10   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              54  80  52  84  54 /  30   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              42  59  38  62  41 /  50  30  20   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   50  78  49  82  51 /  20  10   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             46  68  45  72  44 /  20  20   0   0   0
DEMING                  48  80  47  84  48 /  10   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               48  79  47  82  47 /  10  10   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      59  82  58  84  59 /  10   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               53  80  51  83  53 /  30  20   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            55  82  54  86  56 /  20   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              58  78  57  79  54 /  20   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  54  81  53  84  55 /  20   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            55  82  54  85  53 /  10   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          58  80  56  83  56 /  20   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           50  80  47  83  48 /  20   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   50  81  48  84  50 /  10   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                54  81  53  83  52 /  10   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               57  81  56  83  55 /  30   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 48  69  45  71  46 /  50  30  10   0   0
MESCALERO               45  69  42  70  44 /  50  30  10   0   0
TIMBERON                47  68  44  70  44 /  40  30  10   0   0
WINSTON                 44  71  40  73  42 /  30  40  10   0   0
HILLSBORO               48  77  46  80  47 /  20  20   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               49  80  47  83  48 /  20   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            44  69  41  72  43 /  30  30  10   0   0
HURLEY                  47  69  44  73  44 /  20  20   0   0   0
CLIFF                   42  75  41  80  44 /  10  30   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              39  73  39  78  37 /  20  30   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 47  74  46  78  46 /  20  20   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  48  80  48  83  47 /  10   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 47  81  48  83  46 /  10   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          46  80  48  82  46 /  10   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              47  76  48  78  45 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14/77








USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.