Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 041945
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
245 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AT 2 PM...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
AND LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER NEW MEXICO.THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS
TIGHTENING AND NOT EXPECTING WINDS TO FULLY DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT.
THERE IS A VERY TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT ACROSS SE TX THIS AFTN. PW
VALUES ARE 0.60 INCHES OVER THE EAST AND 1.40 INCHES OVER THE
WEST. THERE IS A WEAK DISTURBANCE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF AND
THIS FEATURE IS SLOWING MOVING WEST AND SHOULD AFFECT SE TX ON
TUESDAY. THERE IS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER NEW MEXICO AND
THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE NNE AND ALSO GENERATE LIFT OVER THE AREA.
MOISTURE LEVELS WILL APPROACH 1.60 INCHES ON TUESDAY AND UPPER
LEVEL WINDS WILL BECOME STRONGLY DIVERGENT SO FEEL RAIN CHANCES
SHOULD INCREASE ON TUESDAY AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. THINGS BECOME LESS CLEAR FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE GULF EXPANDS WEST. IT LOOKS LIKE A SERIES
OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL STAY WEST OF SE TX THROUGH
FRIDAY. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW WEAK CAPPING BETWEEN 850-700 MB AND A
RELATIVELY DRY PROFILE. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE STRENGTH
OF THE RIDGE SO FEEL 20/30 POPS ARE STILL REQUIRED BUT FEEL THE
BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN ZONES. THE GFS AND
ECMWF DIVERGE OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE GFS GENERATES A SWATH OF
RAIN OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN KEEP
THINGS DRY. FEEL THE GFS MIGHT BE TOO AGGRESSIVE IN BREAKING DOWN
THE RIDGE OVER THE GULF SO HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE SLOWER/DRIER ECMWF/GEM.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS ON
SUNDAY NIGHT. JET DYNAMICS IMPROVE SIGNIFICANTLY AS SE TX WILL LIE
IN A RRQ AND MSTR LEVELS INCREASE TO 1.70 INCHES. RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE ON THE RISE SOMETIME LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.  43

&&

.MARINE...
A TIGHT EAST TO WEST SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION
WILL TRANSLATE TO STRENGTHENED SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THIS LONG DURATION FETCH WILL PULL IN AN EASTERN GULF
SWELL AND INCREASE SEA HEIGHTS BY A COUPLE OF FEET BY WEDNESDAY. A
HIGHER PROBABILITY FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      64  81  68  84  70 /  20  60  30  30  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              67  81  69  85  70 /  30  50  20  20  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            73  79  73  81  74 /  30  40  20  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$


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