Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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000
FXUS62 KJAX 261859
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
259 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MUCH LESS ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON THAN SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AS A
COLD FRONT WORKS BACK TO THE SOUTH. WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSES IN SW
FLOW CONTINUE TO CROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA...WITH A FEW SHOWERS JUST
SOUTH OF MARION/FLAGLER COUNTIES THIS AFTN. WITH INTENSE HEATING
AND SOME POTENTIAL FOR SMALL SCALE BOUNDARIES CLIPPING NORTHERN
FLORIDA...WILL KEEP ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED POPS LATE THIS
AFTN FROM JAX SOUTH. WITH SOME DEEP LAYER SHEAR A STORM OR TWO
COULD BECOME STRONG. ANY ACTIVITY EARLY THIS EVENING WILL DIMINISH
AFTER SUNSET. A LITTLE STRONGER IMPULSE IS PROGGED TO MOVE ONSHORE
FROM THE GULF OVERNIGHT/EARLY MONDAY...AND WILL INCLUDE LOW END
SCATTERED POPS FOR NORTH CENTRAL FL LATE. LOWS OF 65 TO 70 WILL
GENERALLY PREVAIL.

MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER NORTH
CENTRAL FL MONDAY THEN STALL. WITH SOME MID LEVEL FORCING NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY...WILL CONTINUE TO USE SCATTERED POPS MONDAY AFTN
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FL...WITH LEASER COVERAGE FOR NE FL AND
EXTREME SE GA. DO NOT EXPECT STRONG/SEVERE STORMS AS THE AREA WILL
BE ON THE MORE STABLE COOL SECTOR. LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW WILL
LEAD TO A SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER DAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S ALONG
THE COAST...AND MAINLY LOWER 80S INLAND. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS
FOR MONDAY NIGHT S OF FL-GA BORDER WITH WEAK WAVE MOVING THROUGH
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 60S SE GA...MID
60S NE FL.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PREFER SLIGHTLY STRONGER/FASTER ECMWF SOLUTION VS WEAKER/SLOWER
GFS SOLUTION...NAM SIMILAR TO ECMWF BUT MAY BE A BIT TOO STRONG.
UPPER SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD OVER WRN GULF COAST REGION
TUESDAY...SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER NRN GULF WITH NORTHWARD SURGE
OF GULF MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT. WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND WARM
ADVECTION SHOWERS WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS DOWN IN 70S...PERHAPS
AROUND 80 OCF AREA.

INTERESTING SCENARIO TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. UPPER SYSTEM
MOVES EASTWARD...WHILE SURFACE LOW MOVES OVER FL PANHANDLE LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND SW/SCTRL GA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. NAM SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST DESTABILIZATION DURING TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH LOW-LEVEL
MOISTENING AND SLIGHT MID-LEVEL COOLING...THUS STEEPENING LAPSE
RATE...WITH ELEVATED CAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG. ENVIRONMENT
ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR. THIS SETUP COULD SUPPORT
ELEVATED SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL ALONG WARM FRONT EXTENDING OVER SRN
GA/FAR NRN FL BY WED MORNING. EXTENT OF SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL
DEPEND HEAVILY ON LEVEL OF INSTABILITY EXISTING AT NIGHT. MODELS
SUGGEST NORTHWARD SURGE OF 70-72 DEWPOINTS LATE TUE NIGHT ACROSS
FORECAST AREA...EXCEPT DELAYED TIL WED MORNING ON SLOWER GFS. WE
WILL CLOSELY MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL EVENT.

DRIER CONDITIONS FOR LATTER PART OF WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...WITH
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WITH ANY AFTN
CONVECTION ISOLATED...WILL USE VCSH/VCTS. PERHAPS SOME BRIEF MVFR
COULD BE POSSIBLE IF ANY STRONGER STORMS FORM. SOME PATCHY MVFR
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT GNV LATE OVERNIGHT. W/SW WINDS 12-16 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KT THIS AFTN WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND VEER TO
THE NW OVERNIGHT...AND NORTH MONDAY. WILL USE VCSH FOR INITIAL
SHOWER ACTIVITY BY MIDDAY MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON...SO WILL LOWER CAUTION
FOR THE OUTER WATERS. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN UNDER CAUTION
THROUGH TUESDAY. FLOW BECOMES MORE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE
IN SPEED TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. AS THE LOW TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN GA
TO SC COAST WED/WED NIGHT AND INTENSIFIES...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. WINDS WILL LIKELY REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AFTER A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND
WINDS SHIFT TO WESTERLY. WINDS/SEAS GRADUALLY DECREASE FRI/SAT AS
LOW MOVES FURTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  63  79  60  74 /  10  10  10  50
SSI  65  72  64  70 /  10  10  10  50
JAX  67  79  64  76 /  10  20  30  60
SGJ  70  77  66  75 /  20  30  30  60
GNV  69  83  65  78 /  20  40  50  60
OCF  70  84  67  80 /  30  40  50  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ALLEN/WOLF


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