Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KLIX 172037
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
337 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

CONVECTIVE COMPLEX REMAINED OFFSHORE TODAY...CUTTING OFF THE BEST
MOISTURE FEED TO THE AREA. THIS PROVIDED US A NICER DAY THAN
ANTICIPATED...WHICH I DO NOT THINK IS GOING TO GATHER TOO MANY
COMPLAINTS. RADAR ONLY INDICATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AT THIS TIME.
WITH LESSER CLOUD COVER THAN EXPECTED...TEMPERATURES GOT INTO THE
LOWER 80S IN MANY AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK STATIONARY BOUNDARY
REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

LOOKS TO BE ONE MORE MAJOR BURST OF CONVECTION FOR THE AREA BEFORE
WE BEGIN TO DRY OUT SOMEWHAT. CONVECTION FIRING OFF OVER CENTRAL
TEXAS TODAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE AN MCS THIS EVENING THAT IS
EXPECTED TO ROLL ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA LATE TONIGHT AND DURING
THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SATURDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AGAIN
RISE ABOVE 1.8 INCHES BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. COULD BE A BIT OF
SEVERE WEATHER ON THE FRONT END AS DRIER AIR MIXES DOWN WITH A
GOOD BIT OF SHEAR IN THE LOWER LEVELS. RAIN AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES STILL APPEARS REASONABLE WITH THIS EVENT. HAVE OPTED TO
INCLUDE REMAINING LOUISIANA PARISHES IN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO
BLEND WITH NEIGHBORS AND ACCOUNT FOR OVERNIGHT RAIN LAST NIGHT.
NOT AS CONFIDENT ON PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AS
CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION BEYOND
12Z SUNDAY ACROSS THE AREA. SPC HAS THE AREA OUTLOOKED FOR A
SLIGHT RISK ON SUNDAY...BUT IF MODEL TIMING IS CORRECT...MAIN THREAT
WOULD BE EAST OF OUR AREA. MSY BUFR SOUNDINGS FOR 12Z SUNDAY SHOW
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DOWN TO AROUND AN INCH WITH VERY LITTLE
TURNING IN THE HODOGRAPH. EXPECT ANY CONVECTION SUNDAY WILL BE
RATHER ISOLATED IN EXTENT.

MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BE DRY
ACROSS MOST OR ALL OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY LIKELY TO
REMAIN IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER. DRIER
AIR ON SUNDAY WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOWER AND
MID 80S IN MOST AREAS...WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER ON
MONDAY. 35

&&

.LONG TERM...

FINALLY...A SOMEWHAT DRIER REGIME ACROSS THE AREA FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD KEEP THE AREA DRY MUCH OF THE WEEK. GFS
SOLUTION RUNS SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WHICH COULD DRIVE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE
AREA. DEFINITELY WILL SEE SOME LOWER HUMIDITIES EARLY IN THE
WEEK...WHICH WILL ALLOW LOWS TO DROP INTO THE 50S ACROSS NORTHERN
SECTIONS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS. AREAS IN SOUTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI MAY REMAIN IN THE 70S ON TUESDAY...BUT WILL REBOUND TO
THE MID 80S IN MOST LOCATIONS BY THURSDAY. WILL HOLD OFF GOING
QUITE AS WARM AS THE GFS AT THE END OF THE WEEK...WHICH WOULD HAVE
TEMPERATURES NEAR BATON ROUGE. 35

&&

.AVIATION...

TOOK MENTION OF RAIN OUT OF TERMINALS UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING.
SHRA WILL DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF A FORECAST AREA OF CONVECTION
BEGINNING AROUND 09Z WITH TSRA CHANCES MOVING IN FROM THE WEST
FROM 12Z TO 18Z. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO BKN/OVC010 SATURDAY
MORNING AS SHRA/TSRA MOVES THROUGH. WINDS VRB TONIGHT BECOMING
SRLY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES APPROACHES. VSBY MAINLY P6SM HOWEVER
LOWER 3 TO 5SM DURING PERIODS OF TSTMS. /KEG/

&&

.MARINE...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER CENTRAL CO WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EAST. AS A RESULT SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AROUND 10 TO 15 KT AND SEAS 1
TO 3 FEET CONTINUE. AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES...WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION OR ADVISORY CRITERIA SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SEAS WILL RESPOND INCREASING TO THE 3 TO 6 FOOT
RANGE. LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT FOLLOWING THE PASSING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SUNDAY LOWERING SEAS AND WINDS TO BEGIN NEXT WEEK.
IN ADDITION... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO IMPACT
THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
/KEG/

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...MONITORING HEAVY RAINFALL/FLOODING POTENTIAL
             ASSESSING SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THRU WEEKEND.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TONIGHT RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  66  77  65  82 /  70  90  70  40
BTR  68  79  65  83 /  70  90  70  30
ASD  68  79  68  82 /  70  90  70  40
MSY  70  79  69  82 /  70  90  60  40
GPT  68  76  70  79 /  60  80  70  50
PQL  68  79  70  81 /  60  80  70  50

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR LAZ034>037-039-
     040-046>050-056>072.

GM...NONE.
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR MSZ077-080>082.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.