Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 030948
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
248 AM PDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...WARMER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY...THEN MUCH COOLER FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK
COURTESY OF A COOL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
EACH AFTERNOON...SOME OF THE STORMS WILL PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY
WINDS BUT VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL. HOWEVER BEGINNING
THURSDAY MUCH OF THE AREA WILL HAVE A GOOD SHOT OF WELCOME
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THUNDERSTORMS A BIT MORE ACTIVE THIS EVENING WITH
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES DRIVING THEM MOST OF THE NIGHT...HOWEVER
ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED WITH MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUD DEBRIS WHICH
WILL CLEAR OUT LATER THIS MORNING. EXPECT A REPEAT FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE WITH THE
MAIN THREAT BEING GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...BUT SMALL HAIL IS
ALSO POSSIBLE IN A COUPLE OF THE STORMS. INSTABILITY BEST IN ELKO
COUNTY EXTENDING INTO PORTIONS OF EUREKA AND LANDER COUNTY WITH
LI`S OF -2 TO -3 AND MLCAPE VALUES IN THE VICINITY OF 500 J/KG.
MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH PW`S NEAR .50" SO MOST STORMS WILL
PRODUCE VERY LITTLE RAINFALL. STORMS WILL FOCUS NEAR A 700MB
CONVERGENCE ZONE FROM AUSTIN TO NORTH OF EUREKA TO THE VICINITY OF
THE RUBY MOUNTAINS. MONDAY VERY SIMILAR WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN SAME
GENERAL AREA...HOWEVER MAY SEE A SLIGHT UPTICK IN CENTRAL NEVADA
AS 700MB CONVERGENCE ZONE IS PROGGED TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY SOUTH.
TUESDAY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BEGIN TO PUSH SOUTH TOWARDS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS WILL CAUSE THE UPPER FLOW TO STRENGTHEN
SLIGHTLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...MODELS HINTING AT BEST INSTABILITY
AND MOST THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA BUT STILL CHANCE OF A FEW
STORMS ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA. PW`S WILL REMAIN AROUND .50" SO
MOST STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO
DROP A FEW DEGREES AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ON TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. CURRENT MODEL SOLUTIONS
ARE CONTINUING TO DEPICT A PATTERN CHANGE FOR THE UPCOMING LONG TERM
PERIOD. FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE BRINGING AN
UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A COLD FRONT
IS FORECAST TO PUSH THOUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY BUT STALL IN CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN NEVADA. SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL EXIST IN NORTHERN
NYE AND WHITE PINE COUNTIES...BUT READINGS AT THIS TIME APPEAR TO BE
BELOW CRITERIA. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE AROUND NORMAL...WITH
READINGS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 6000
FEET...EXCEPT FOR HUMBOLDT COUNTY WHERE SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND
5500-6000 FEET. LIFTED INDICES WILL GENERALLY BE NEGATIVE AND SO
HAVE CONTINUED THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MODELS BRING THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
SOUTHWARD THROUGH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER...THE NEWEST EUROPEAN
RUN HAD THE UPPER SYSTEM SHIFTING WEST...AND WILL NEED TO WATCH THE
POSSIBLE WESTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER SYSTEM. FOR NOW...HAVE
BUMPED UP POPS AND KEPT AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE FORECAST. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY...ESPECIALLY IN WHITE PINE
COUNTY...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. SNOW
LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 6500-7500 FEET AND EVEN THOUGH THIS IS A COLD
SYSTEM...IT WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH THE HIGHER SUN ANGLE AND MORE
DAYLIGHT. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR A CHANGE ON
THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...THE MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE THE UPPER LOW
PINWHEELING AROUND AND OVER THE STATE...WITH ENERGY LOBES ROTATING
AROUND THE PARENT LOW. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE NEAR FREEZING TO THE
UPPER 30S DEPENDING ON LOCATION. HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE SCATTERED
CATEGORY OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE OVERNIGHT AND
AFTERNOON PERIODS. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.AVIATION...MID-DECK THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTIAL CLEARING
LATER THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
AGAIN FORM EARLY TO MID-AFTERNOON. HAVE VCTS IN ALL TAFS. WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS...GUSTS TO 35KT ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH BLOWING DUST.

.EQUIPMENT...THE WINNEMUCCA ASOS IS EXPERIENCING TELECOMMUNICATIONS
ISSUES AT THIS TIME. ALTHOUGH THE ASOS IS NOT TRANSMITTING
OBSERVATIONS THROUGH THE INTERNET...LANDLINE COMMUNICATIONS REMAIN
OPERATIONAL. IT IS NOT KNOWN AT THIS TIME WHEN THIS WILL BE
REPAIRED.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

90/86/86



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