Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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000
FXUS64 KLZK 211127
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
627 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

.AVIATION...

SHOWERS IN OKLAHOMA CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH EAST TOWARDS ARKANSAS.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THESE SHOWERS WEAKENING BEFORE MAKING TOO
MUCH PROGRESS INTO ARKANSAS. HOWEVER DID GO AND INCLUDE VCSH INTO
THE TAFS AT KHRO/KBPK/KHOT/KADF/KLIT. LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE STATE FROM THE
NORTH AND BRING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN
ARKANSAS. DO THINK BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS
SOUTHERN MISSOURI...BUT DID ONCE AGAIN INCLUDE VCSH IN THE TAFS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
AFTER A GLORIOUS SPRING DAY ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY...OUR NORMAL
PATTERN OF LATE WILL RETURN WITH UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURNING TO
THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS ONCE AGAIN REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN
THE SYNOPTIC SCALE WITH TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE INDIVIDUAL
WAVES MAKING FOR A CHALLENGING FORECAST. WITH THE DIFFERENCES IN THE
FINER DETAILS BEING WHAT THEY ARE...THE BEST PLAN OF ACTION IS TO
BLEND FORECAST SOLUTIONS THIS MORNING.

PERIOD INITIATES WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE EAST OF
THE AREA AND MOVING AWAY WITH A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. UPPER PATTERN FEATURES RIDGING OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS WITH BROAD DOWN STREAM TROUGHING. AREA WILL BE UNDER
BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COMING IN FOR THIS AFTERNOON. NOT EXPECTING
MUCH FROM THIS SYSTEM BUT A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER
THE NORTH. SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL HELP
TEMPERATURES WARM VERSUS MONDAYS HIGHS.

COME WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ON SHORE ALONG THE
WEST COAST WHICH WILL ALLOW AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD IN THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. MEANWHILE...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN
OVER THE NEW MEXICO PLAINS WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. ANOTHER UPPER WAVE WILL INITIATE
CONVECTION AND SOME STORMS COULD REACH SEVERE LIMITS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST. MCS FORMATION IS ALSO POSSIBLE AND WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED.

FRONT WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD
AND BE THE FOCAL POINT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSES INTERACT WITH THE BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES WILL LARGELY
AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CAN
NOT BE TOTALLY DISCOUNTED WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHWEST
PART OF THE STATE.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO...MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT. HOWEVER THEY STILL STRUGGLE WITH SOME OF THE FINER
DETAILS. TO START THE LONG TERM...BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE TO THE
EAST OF ARKANSAS...WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE STATE DURING
THE DAY.

MODELS ALSO GENERALLY AGREE THAT A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER ON MONDAY...GFS AND ECMWF DISAGREE ON THE
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF AN UPPER TROUGH. GFS HAS NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND THE ECMWF HAS A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE STATE. AT THIS POINT...TENDED TO LEAN TOWARDS THE EURO
SOLUTION AND INCREASED POPS FOR MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     72  51  71  50 /  20  20  30  40
CAMDEN AR         76  54  78  60 /  10  10  40  60
HARRISON AR       69  48  66  47 /  20  20  40  40
HOT SPRINGS AR    74  53  75  57 /  20  20  40  60
LITTLE ROCK   AR  74  53  75  55 /  10  10  40  60
MONTICELLO AR     75  55  77  59 /  10  10  40  60
MOUNT IDA AR      73  51  74  56 /  20  20  50  60
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  71  49  67  48 /  20  20  30  30
NEWPORT AR        72  51  71  50 /  20  20  30  30
PINE BLUFF AR     74  53  76  57 /  10  10  40  50
RUSSELLVILLE AR   73  50  73  54 /  20  20  40  50
SEARCY AR         72  50  73  52 /  20  10  30  50
STUTTGART AR      73  53  75  55 /  10  10  30  50
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...65





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