Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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000
FXUS62 KMFL 251136
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
736 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.AVIATION...
SOUTHEAST SFC WIND FLOW THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE
SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON, THEN TO SW THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE OFF
THE EAST COAST MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES STRENGTHENS AND INFLUENCES THE LOCAL
PRESSURE GRADIENT. SEA BREEZES BY 16Z-17Z WILL MODIFY THE WIND
PATTERN, WITH SOLID SW WINDS AT ALL TERMINALS BY AROUND 00Z.
AIRMASS NOT AS MOIST AS THE PAST FEW DAYS, BUT STILL ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON.
WESTERLY STEERING FLOW WILL KEEP THE GULF COAST DRY AND PUSH ANY
SHOWERS/TSTMS TOWARDS THE EAST COAST. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL, WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR EAST COAST TERMINALS IN AND
NEAR ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON. INDICATING VCTS AT PBI-FLL
WHERE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE GREATER, BUT MAY HAVE TO BE
EXPANDED LATER TODAY TO INCLUDE MIA AREA IF CONVECTION DEVELOPS
FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. /MOLLEDA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...

THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURES ACROSS THE REGION INCLUDE A WEAK AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFF THE GEORGIA COASTLINE AND AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. THESE SYNOPTIC FEATURES RESULT IN GENERALLY EASTERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WITH STABLE WEATHER AS
RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES NEARLY CLEAR SKIES AND RECENT
RADAR RETURNS INDICATE ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
KEYS.

FOR TODAY...WINDS ACROSS THE REGION ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY AS THE DAY PROGRESS. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
REGION WILL CONTINUE TO PLAY A STABILIZING ROLE FOR TODAY...BUT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE PWAT COULD REMAIN AROUND 1.7
INCHES. SO WITH AVAILABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SEA BREEZES
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SURFACE
CONVERGENCE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION SHOULD BE ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON. THUS THE FORECAST
HAS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY CONCENTRATED
ACROSS THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN PENINSULA WITH THE GREATEST
COVERAGE EXPECTED ACROSS PALM BEACH COUNTY. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TODAY WITH THE STABILIZING EFFECT OF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE.

FOR SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE EASTERN
GULF AS A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
ENTER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THIS SYNOPTIC SET UP WILL HAVE DEEP
LAYERED MOISTURE REMAINING NORTH OF SOUTH FLORIDA WITH A GENERALLY
STABLE LOCAL ATMOSPHERE. WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
REGION ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA.

FOR MONDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BY MONDAY THE AFOREMENTIONED
SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO BE ROUGHLY OFF THE COAST OF
JACKSONVILLE WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA.
THIS WILL BRING MOISTURE BACK TO THE REGION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE STARTING TO ERODE WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FORECAST. THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS INDICATES A BROAD SURFACE LOW
ENTERING THE NORTHERN GULF ON TUESDAY AND THEN BY WEDNESDAY THE
LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD TO NORTH FLORIDA
WHILE A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN GULF.
THIS FORECAST SCENARIO WILL MAINTAIN A CONSIDERABLE CHANCE OF
CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND ADJACENT WATERS WITH SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. A GRADUAL DRYING TREND IS FORECAST INTO THE LATER PART
OF THE WEEK.

MARINE...

WINDS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS ARE GENERALLY EASTERLY AROUND 10
KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING BUT ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY BY THE AFTERNOON WITH GULF SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS AND THE
ATLANTIC SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET. TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WINDS ARE FORECAST
TO TRANSITION TO SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION WITH ATLANTIC WINDS IN
THE 12 TO 17 KNOT RANGE AND IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE FOR THE
ATLANTIC WATERS.

UNCERTAINTY WILL CONTINUE IN THE WIND FORECAST IN THE EXTENDED
PERIODS WITH THE GUIDANCE FORECASTING A BROAD SURFACE LOW
ENTERING THE NORTHERN GULF ON TUESDAY AND THEN BY WEDNESDAY THE
LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD INTO NORTH FLORIDA.
WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE MAY BE POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  89  75  93  75 /  30  10  20  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  88  78  93  77 /  20   0  20  20
MIAMI            91  76  93  77 /  20   0  10  10
NAPLES           90  78  89  75 /  10   0  10  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB
AVIATION.....59/MOLLEDA


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