Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 250831
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
430 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...A HOT WEEKEND IS ON TAP...

...HIGHER RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...

TODAY-TONIGHT... WEAK SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
WILL CONTINUE MOVING FURTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC TODAY AS THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE OH/TN VALLEYS THIS
EVENING. WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRANSIT FL TODAY KEEPING
TEMPERATURES ALOFT FAIRLY WARM AND DRY AS THE RIDGE INITIALLY KEEPS
MOST OF THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WELL
NORTH OF THE STATE.

DRY AND PARTLY CLOUDY START TO THE DAY WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW HELPING TO MOISTEN THE LOWER LEVELS AND PUSHING
THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE QUICKLY ACROSS THE PENINSULA. WITH
PREVAILING SYNOPTIC FLOW VEERING OFFSHORE...EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
WILL STRUGGLE TO DEVELOP BUT MESO MODELS STILL SHOW IT GETTING JUST
INLAND OF THE BARRIER ISLANDS LATE IN THE DAY FROM BREVARD
SOUTHWARDS. LACK OF SEA BREEZE WILL MAKE FOR A WARM DAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S.

SEA/LAKE/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL BE THE MAIN DRIVER OF CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON AND IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO
OVERCOME THE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND GET SHOWERS AND STORMS GOING.
BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE TOWARDS THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
THE SEA BREEZE COLLISION WITH MOST ACTIVITY MOVING OFFSHORE NOT TO
LONG AFTER SUNSET.

INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS FROM THE GULF
ACROSS INTO LAKE AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES TOWARDS DAYBREAK SUNDAY AS THE
NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIPS INTO N FLORIDA.

SUN-TUE...STOUT LOW LEVEL WRLY FLOW CONTINUES SUN BTWN A LOW PRES
TROUGH TO THE NORTH AND A RIDGE TO THE SOUTH...AS A PRE-FRONTAL
MOISTURE BAND SAGS INTO THE NRN THIRD FL. DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL BE
WCSB-DOMINANT AS ECSB NOT EXPECT TO FORM. HIGHEST RAIN CHCS OVER THE
NORTH (40-50) TRENDING TO JUST SLIGHT CHC/20 SOUTH. TEMPS WILL REACH
THE U80S-L90S...WITH SOME AREAS OVER THE SOUTH PUSHING 95F...EVEN
ALONG THE COAST. PGRAD WILL RELAX SLIGHTLY ON MON AS RIDGE TO THE
SOUTH COLLAPSES. SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION ON TAP WITH
MAX TEMPS NOT NEARLY AS HOT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EAST COAST.

ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING TUE AS THE WEAK "BACK DOOR" FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SAGS ACROSS THE CWA AND HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE NORTH. WEAK WARM
FRONTOGENETIC UPGLIDE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PENINSULA LATE TUE/TUE
NIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE CTRL-ERN
GOMEX...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND RAIN CHCS AS A RESULT.

WED-SAT...SFC LOW WILL CROSS THE NERN GOMEX WED AND MOVE UP THE ERN
SEABOARD ON THU. THE ECM IS STRONGER WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH TO
THE NORTH AND RESULTANT SURFACE LOW. CONSEQUENTLY...IT IS ALSO MORE
AGGRESSIVE AND FASTER SWINGING THE FRONT AND ASCD DRYING THROUGH THE
REGION. OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE GFS AND SINCE THE ECM HAS OVERDEEPENED
SRN STREAM SFC LOWS OUT IN THE D5+ RANGE A TIME OR TWO THIS SEASON
THE CURRENT FCST WILL FAVOR THE WEAKER AND LESS AGGRESSIVE GFS FOR
NOW...WHICH RESULTS IN HIGHER POPS FOR THU. DRIER AIR TAKES HOLD
FROM THU NIGHT INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH TEMPS PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...SE/S MORNING WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL VEER TO SW BY
LATE MORNING...EXCEPT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SPACE/TREASURE COASTS.
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND BOUNDARY COLLISIONS WILL BE THE MAIN DRIVER
OF SCT SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT AFTER 16Z WITH STEERING FLOW FROM WEST
TO THE EAST WITH STORMS FAVORING THE EASTERN PENINSULA LATE IN THE
DAY. MOST ACTIVITY MOVING OFF THE COAST BY 26/00Z WITH A FEW -SHRA
POSSIBLE VCNTY KLEE AFTER 26/09Z.

&&

.MARINE...TODAY-TONIGHT... EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL CONTINUE TO VEER SOUTHERLY INTO THE LATE MORNING WITH SPEEDS
INCREASING TO 10-15KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND 15-20KTS OFFSHORE
BY LATE IN THE DAY. WINDS VEER WEST-SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT WITH 15KTS
NEARSHORE AND 15-20KTS OFFSHORE. SOME OFFSHORE LOCATIONS MAY SEE
SUSTAINED 20KTS AT TIMES...BUT DURATION LOOKS SHORT ENOUGH THAT A
CAUTIONARY STATEMENT SHOULD SUFFICE. SEAS 2-4 FT NEAR SHORE AND 3-5
FT OFFSHORE.

MARINERS WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE TO THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AS SEA
BREEZE COLLISIONS OVER THE INTERIOR MAY AFFECT THE INTRACOASTAL/NEAR
SHORE ATLC WATERS LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING WITH WESTERLY
STEERING FLOW ALOFT.

SUNDAY....WRLY SFC/STEERING FLOW WILL PREVAIL FOR ANOTHER DAY WITH
SPEEDS REMAINING IN THE 15-20KT RANGE AWAY FROM THE COAST THROUGH
SUN NIGHT. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 5FT WELL
OFFSHORE...AND THE MAIN MARINE CONCERN WILL REMAIN STRONG TSTMS
APPROACHING RAPIDLY FROM THE WEST AND PRODUCING LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS
AND SEAS...ALONG WITH FQT C/W LTG.

MON-WED...WRLY FLOW NEAR 20KT EARLY MON MORNING WILL SLACKEN LATE AS
THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH COLLAPSES AND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS
INTO THE AREA. WINDS VEER ONSHORE AND INCREASE AGAIN TUE...THEN VEER
FURTHER TO SRLY ON WED. SEAS FOR THE MOST PART 2-3FT NEAR SHORE AND
4-5FT OFFSHORE...WITH SOME INCREASE AREAWIDE TUE NIGHT-WED. AS
MENTIONED EARLIER IN THE AFD...THE ECM MAY BE OVERDEEPENING THE SFC
LOW AS IT CROSSES NORTH FL AND MOVES OFFSHORE THE SERN SEABOARD.
IF ITS SUB-1000MB SOLN WERE TO VERIFY...THEN WE`D LIKELY SEE WINDS
AND POSSIBLY SEAS REACH SCA LEVELS BY LATE WED.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGHS FOR THIS WEEKEND

SAT 25 APRSUN 26 APR
DAYTONA BEACH...9393
ORLANDO.........9798
MELBOURNE....... 9792
VERO BEACH......9595

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  90  71  90  71 /  40  20  50  40
MCO  89  72  91  71 /  30  10  30  40
MLB  90  73  93  73 /  30  20  30  30
VRB  89  73  93  73 /  20  20  30  30
LEE  89  73  86  71 /  30  20  40  40
SFB  88  73  90  72 /  30  10  40  40
ORL  88  73  91  71 /  30  10  40  40
FPR  90  72  94  72 /  20  20  30  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOSES
LONG TERM....CRISTALDI
AVIATION...MOSES


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