Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 281106
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
706 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 453 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A MID LEVEL RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM IA TO JAMES BAY...SANDWICHED BTWN A SHORTWAVE TROF
MOVING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND CONTINUED BROAD CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION ENCOMPASSING SE CANADA AND THE NE CONUS. THE MID LEVEL
RIDGE IS SUPPORTING SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE UPPER LAKES EARLY THIS
MORNING. TO THE W...APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROF IS ACCOMAPANIED BY A
BAND OF SHRA IN NW MN.

APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROF WILL REACH WRN UPPER MI LATE
AFTN/EVENING. WITH DEEP LAYER FORCING WEAKENING PER QVECTORS...A
LACK OF MOISTURE INFLOW...AND A VERY DRY ANTECEDANT AIR MASS PER 00Z
REGIONAL SOUNDINGS...MOST OF THE MODELS APPEAR ON TRACK SHOWING
APPROACHING PCPN DISSIPATING BEFORE REACHING UPPER MI LATE THIS
AFTN/EVENING. SO...PLAN TO MAINTAIN A DRY FCST. SECOND SHORTWAVE NOW
MOVING INTO NRN MANITOBA WILL MOVE INTO NRN ONTARIO AND THEN BEGIN
DIGGING MORE SHARPLY TO THE S TONIGHT WITH MODELS SUGGESTING A MID
LEVEL LOW BEGINNING TO CLOSE OFF JUST N OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE
TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT AN EXPANSION OF PCPN N AND E OF LAKE
SUPERIOR TONIGHT...CLOSER TO GREATEST HEIGHT FALLS. PCPN MAY TRY TO
DEVELOP S INTO UPPER MI...BUT LACK OF DEEP FORCING HERE SUGGESTS DRY
WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE THRU THE NIGHT.

AS FOR TEMPS...WEAK PRES GRADIENT TODAY WILL ALLOW LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE BOARD...LEADING TO COOLER CONDITIONS ALONG
THE LAKES. IT WILL BE COOLEST IN THE ERN FCST AREA ALONG THE LAKE
SUPERIOR SHORE DUE TO ONSHORE WINDS THRU THE DAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE 40S THERE. IN THE INTERIOR...FAVORED THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE
GIVEN THAT WARMER GUIDANCE HAS VERIFIED BETTER THE LAST COUPLE OF
DAYS. EXPECT HIGHEST TEMPS IN THE INTERIOR W WHERE MAX READINGS WILL
BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. DEEP MIXING IN THE INTERIOR WILL TAP
DRIER AIR ALOFT...RESULTING IN AFTN DWPTS IN THE MID 20S...PERHAPS
LOWER. THIS WILL SEND RH DOWN TO AROUND 20PCT IN THE INTERIOR W.
FROM A FIRE WX STANDOINT...FORTUNATELY...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TODAY.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015

PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN HARD TO COME BY IN THE LONG TERM AS THE
AREA WILL BE DOMINATED BY A SFC RIDGE AT LEAST THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WORK WEEK.

AN UPPER WAVE WILL TRANSIT THE CENTRAL OR ERN CWA WED INTO WED
NIGHT...BUT WILL BE LACKING MOISTURE SUFFICIENT FOR SIGNIFICANT
PRECIP. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN E AND POSSIBLY SOME SPRINKLES OVER
THE NCENTRAL (AIDED BY UPSLOPE FORCING) WED INTO WED NIGHT. THE NAM
SHOWS THE MOST QPF BUT IT IS ALSO STRONGEST WITH THE WAVE AND HAS
BEEN SUBSTANTIALLY OVERDOING LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE LATELY. N WINDS
OF 10-15MPH GUSTING TO 20MPH WILL KEEP LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE
LOCATIONS COOL WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE 40S. INLAND HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE 50S.

SFC RIDGING TAKES MOVES SQUARELY BACK OVER THE CWA ON THU BEFORE
MOVING OUT ON FRI EVENING AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.
THU WILL SEE SIMILAR TEMPS TO WED AS N-NE FLOW CONTINUES...BUT SW-W
FLOW AND AN OVERALL MUCH WARMER AIRMASS ON FRI WILL ALLOW FOR HIGH
TEMPS IN THE 50S E AND THE 60S W. THANKFULLY...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
ON FRI...WHICH WILL HELP OFFSET FIRE RISK AS RH VALUES DROP INTO THE
20-30 PERCENT RANGE. WILL KEEP SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE FAR
W LATE FRI AS DYING SHORTWAVE MOVES TOWARD THE CWA WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE.

A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVES OVER OR NEAR THE CWA SAT THROUGH
MON...BUT PRECIP POTENTIAL ON SAT LOOKS LOW. FOR SUN AND
MON...BETTER MOISTURE ALONG WITH STRONGER SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY AND
BETTER WAA FORCING WILL MAKE FOR BETTER PRECIP CHANCES. EXACT
AMOUNTS/TIMING IS QUITE UNCERTAIN AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS HARD TO PIN
DOWN AT THAT TIME RANGE. DOES LOOK LIKE TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE 70S
IN SOME SPOTS SAT INTO MON...BUT THAT IS ALSO DEPENDENT ON SHORTWAVE
TRACK/PRECIP/CLOUD COVER.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 706 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015

ALTHOUGH A WEAK LOW PRES TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTN AND EVENING...DRY AIR WILL PERSIST IN THE LOWER LEVELS...
ALLOWING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THRU THE FCST PERIOD AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 453 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015

WINDS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WILL BE LIGHT...UNDER 15KT...THRU THIS
EVENING AS SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA GIVES WAY TO A VERY WEAK LOW
PRES TROF THAT WILL PASS LATE THIS AFTN/EVENING. IN ITS WAKE...
ANOTHER HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER HUDSON BAY AND EXTEND A RIDGE S
INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES WED/THU. AS THE HIGH BEGINS RIDGING S INTO
THE UPPER LAKES LATE TONIGHT/WED...NNW WINDS OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR
WILL LIKELY GUST TO AROUND 20KT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER OVER THE W.
WITH WEAK PRES GRADIENT OVER THE UPPER LAKES THU THRU SAT...WINDS
SHOULD BE LIGHT...MOSTLY UNDER 15KT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON



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