Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 070840
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
340 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2015

.SHORT TERM(TODAY THRU SAT NIGHT)...
FORECAST QUANDARIES...SHWR/TSTM POTENTIAL TODAY THRU SAT NIGHT...
TEMPS.

FORECAST PATTERN MODEL CONSENSUS CONSISTENCY CONTINUING THRU SAT
NIGHT. HOWEVER...AS THE REMAINING WORK WEEK INTO THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEKEND APPROACHES...AT LEAST SHWR/TSTM CHANCES ACROSS THE
WRN HALF OF THE MID STATE WILL INCREASE AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
DYNAMICS BEGIN TO SLIGHTLY WEAKEN ACROSS AT LEAST THIS PORTION OF
THE MID STATE. A CONTINUANCE IN CAROLINAS BASED SFC HIGH PRESSURE
PATTERN INFLUENCES USHERING IN SLY WARM FLOW ACROSS THE MID STATE
IS EXPECTED. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DYNAMICS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
SUBSIDENCE ACROSS MOST OF THE MID STATE TODAY...EXPECT FOR PLATEAU
COUNTIES WHERE ENHANCED WRAPPED AROUND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH A SFC LOW CIRCULATION APPROACHING THE MID ATLANTIC CAROLINA
COASTLINE...INTERACTING WITH DIURNAL AND OROGRAPHIC AFFECTS...SUPPORT
THE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF ISO SHWRS/TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND FRI
AFTERNOON. SLIGHTLY WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DYNAMICS ACROSS
WRN MID STATE LOCATIONS APPROACHING THE TN RIVER VALLEY ON FRI
WILL ALLOW FOR THE THE DEVELOPMENT DIURNAL INITIATED ISO SHWRS/TSTMS
ALSO IN THESE LOCATIONS AS LOW LEVEL ATM MOISTURE POTENTIAL INCREASES.
LOOK FOR SOME ISO SHWRS/TSTMS TO LINGER ACROSS WRN LOCATIONS ON FRI
NIGHT PER WEAK SHORT WAVE PASSAGES. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INFLUENCES
WILL SLIGHTLY WEAKEN ALSO FURTHER EWD ON SAT...NOW ACROSS LOCATIONS
GENERALLY ALONG AND W OF I-65...ALLOWING IN THE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT
OF DIURNAL INITIATED ISO SHWRS/TSTMS ACROSS THIS AREA TO EVEN SCT
SHWRS/TSTMS TN RIVER VALLEY REGION BY SAT AFTERNOON PER INCREASES
IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION. LINGERING ISO SHWRS/TSTMS ACROSS
THE TN RIVER VALLEY REGION ON SAT NIGHT IS EXPECTED AS A BROAD WAA
SCENARIO CONTINUES ACROSS OUR REGION WITH WEAKENING RIDGING INFLUENCES
SUPPORTING WEAK SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES PASSAGES IN SWLY FLOW ALOFT.

AS FOR TEMPS...IN CONTINUED ASSOCIATION WITH WARM 850 MB TEMPS
AND SLY LOW LEVEL ATM FLOW...AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO
REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES. HIGH TEMPS IN SOME LOCATIONS
WILL BE AROUND TEN DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES. HIGHS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM (SUN THRU WED)...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR THE START OF NEXT
WEEK...BUT IT WILL GIVE WAY TO FALLING HEIGHTS AND A COLD FRONT
BY TUESDAY.

SUNDAY LOOKS VERY WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S. THERE WILL BE A SMALL CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.

THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING AS INSTABILITY BUILDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. HIGHS MONDAY
WILL BE QUITE WARM AGAIN...BUT POSSIBLY OFFSET SLIGHTLY BY
INCREASING CLOUDS.

A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT ...BUT NO
WIDESPREAD OR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY
DRIER AND COOLER AIR FOR MIDWEEK.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      88  61  88  63 /  10  05  10  10
CLARKSVILLE    86  61  85  65 /  10  05  20  20
CROSSVILLE     84  58  82  59 /  20  05  20  05
COLUMBIA       86  60  88  63 /  10  05  10  05
LAWRENCEBURG   84  61  87  63 /  10  05  10  10
WAVERLY        86  62  86  64 /  10  05  10  20
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31/13




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