Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 060007 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
707 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.UPDATE...
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES THIS EVENING IN MANY LOCATIONS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WAVES OF SHOWERS WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT.
HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IS POSSIBLE.

LATEST RADARS INDICATED NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS
A LARGE PART OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WITH LESS COVERAGE OVER FAR
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AS WELL AS DECREASING COVERAGE IN FAR
SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THINK THIS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES AND RAINFALL TOTALS
MAINLY NEAR I-35. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH AS THINK THE LACK OF INSTABILITY WILL KEEP RAINFALL RATES
BELOW ONE INCH PER HOUR AND LESSEN THE POTENTIAL OF WIDESPREAD
FLASH FLOODING.

SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR TONIGHT APPEARS TO BE LOW AND DECREASING AS
THE AIR IS RATHER STABLE AND COOL FROM ONGOING RAIN.

PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 613 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015/

AVIATION...
A FEW WAVES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. AWAY FROM THE SHOWERS AND STORMS...
EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND
LINGER INTO THE POST-SUNRISE HOURS. WINDS WILL BECOME RATHER GUSTY
BY MID-MORNING TOMORROW... ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO LIFT
NORTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND CENTRAL OK EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. FURTHER WEST...REDEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING OVER WEST
TEXAS...EASTERN NM...AND THE WESTERN TX PANHANDLE AHEAD OF THE MID
TO UPPER VORT MAX TRAVERSING NM. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATE TONIGHT AS THIS FEATURE PASSES OVER THE TX PANHANDLE AND
MOVES INTO OUR REGION. LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT.
IF MOST OF THE PRECIP EXITS OUR EASTERN FA BY 18Z TOMORROW...THIS
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR DESTABILIZATION ACROSS AT LEAST OUR WESTERN
ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WHERE A SLIGHT
RISK REMAINS INTACT. NAM AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE MODERATE INSTABILITY BY 00Z...ALONG WITH FAIRLY
IMPRESSIVE HODOGRAPHS WEST OF I35 (ESPECIALLY THE NAM). WEAK
FORCING MAY LIMIT THE OVERALL COVERAGE AND INITIATION ALONG THE
SFC TROUGH/DRYLINE BUT THIS COULD ALSO RESULT IN MORE DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS...PERHAPS INCREASING THE RISK OF TORNADOES AS STORMS
MOVE EAST CLOSER TO THE I35 CORRIDOR.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING CLOSED LOW. SEVERAL MID TO UPPER
LEVEL PERTURBATIONS WILL IMPACT THE REGION WITHIN THE SLOWLY
INCREASING SW FLOW ALOFT. THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE PRESENT EACH DAY OF THE WEEK THROUGH SUNDAY BUT
SATURDAY STILL APPEARS TO BE THE MOST FAVORABLE DAY FOR
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WX ACROSS THE REGION. THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL
MOVE INTO SE OK SUNDAY.

CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS INCREASING AND
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE EVENTUALLY NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OK...AND MAYBE WESTERN N TX. FOR THE
MOMENT CURRENT NWP QPF OUTPUT SUGGESTS SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS
CENTRAL OK COULD RECEIVE OVER 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD FINALLY COME TO AN END BY
MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND NORTH
TEXAS TUES AM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  63  77  66  77 / 100  30  50  40
HOBART OK         62  80  64  78 /  80  40  50  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  64  80  66  80 /  80  30  50  50
GAGE OK           59  82  62  79 /  60  30  20  50
PONCA CITY OK     64  77  67  79 / 100  40  50  40
DURANT OK         66  77  67  80 /  70  40  30  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/26



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