Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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FXUS65 KREV 181009
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
309 AM PDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS, AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS, WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE SIERRA THIS WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO
EASTERN CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
THERE WAS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WITH THIS
MORNING`S ISSUANCE. A VERY WEAK UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVER OREGON
WILL DROP INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
AXIS WILL BRING A FEW DEGREES OF MID-LEVEL COOLING BY AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-80. THE NAM AND GFS HAVE NOT WAVERED IN
BUILDING CONVECTION ALONG THE SIERRA CREST THIS AFTERNOON AND THE
HRRR NOW SHOWS SIGNS OF CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON.
WITH THE INCOMING COOLING/DE-STABILIZATION ALOFT AND WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES, I WOULD SUSPECT HIGH-BASED CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS BY LATE AFTERNOON NEAR THE CREST. THE SREF
THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES HAVE ACTUALLY INCREASED SLIGHTLY, SO I
HAVE THROWN IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL.

SUNDAY, ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND A STORM OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE
FOR THE MID-AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE
LIMITED TO NEAR/SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 FROM RIGHT NEAR THE CREST AND
FOR AREAS ON THE WEST SLOPES OF THE SIERRA. THIS IS DUE TO LIGHT
EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT WHICH WILL TEND TO PUSH ANY CONVECTION WEST
OF THE CREST.

ON MONDAY THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH/LOW WILL DROP OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE SITS OVER OREGON. THIS WILL SET UP
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR THE SIERRA AND FAR WESTERN NEVADA.
THIS MAY ALLOW ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SIERRA TO
WORK THEIR WAY INTO FAR WESTERN NEVADA BY EARLY EVENING. SNYDER

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE MAIN FEATURE FOR NEXT WEEK WILL BE THE UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST
TUESDAY THAT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH BY THURSDAY. THEN ANOTHER
UPPER LOW MAY MOVE IN FOR FRIDAY. OVERALL, EXPECT UNSETTLED WEATHER
WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MOST DAYS WITH TEMPS
COOLING OFF. THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE MODELS WITH THE GFS
MORE PROGRESSIVE AND KEEPING THE NEXT UPPER LOW AS AN UPPER WAVE
THAT BRUSHES THE NORTH. THE EC IS SLOWER WITH ANOTHER WAVE INTO
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. RIGHT NOW, THE GFS/EC ENSEMBLES SHOW MUCH
BETTER SUPPORT FOR THE EC SOLUTION SO WILL LEAN IN THAT DIRECTION.

TUESDAY WILL PROBABLY HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT THUNDERSTORMS AS IT WILL
BE THE WARMEST DAY AND LIKELY HAVE THE MOST SUN AS THE LOW REMAINS
OFFSHORE. EXPECT THE STORMS TO START NEAR THE SIERRA CREST THEN
SLOWLY PROGRESS INTO WESTERN NEVADA. WEDNESDAY APPEARS TO HAVE A
BETTER CHANCE AT SHOWERS AS THE LOW MOVES INTO CENTRAL CA. HOWEVER,
MORE CLOUD COVER MAY LIMIT INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THURSDAY,
THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO NEVADA WITH MORE SHOWERS. FRIDAY, THE EC
SHOWS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING INTO CALIFORNIA WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS POSSIBLE. IN GENERAL KEPT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH THE BEST CHANCES STILL WED, BUT THAT MAY CHANGE IN THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

TEMPS WILL START ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY THEN FALL TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL FOR WED-FRI. WINDS DO NOT LOOK TO BE MUCH OF A FACTOR
EITHER EXCEPT FOR SOME LOCALIZED GUSTS NEAR SHOWERS/STORMS. AS FAR
AS PRECIP AMOUNTS, SINCE IT WILL BE SHOWERY IT IS VERY HARD TO PIN
DOWN, ALTHOUGH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO 1 INCH THROUGH THE PERIOD IS
POSSIBLE IF SHOWERS/STORMS KEEP HITTING THE SAME AREA. SNOW LEVELS
WILL ALSO FALL, BUT EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATION TO BE LIMITED TO AREAS
ABOVE 8000 FEET. WALLMANN

&&

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS THRU SUNDAY. A FEW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE NEAR THE SIERRA CREST 21-03Z TODAY AND SUNDAY.
WALLMANN

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)






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