Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000
FXUS61 KRNK 030733
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
333 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST TODAY AND
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON MONDAY. A BACK DOOR FRONT WILL MOVE
SOUTH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SUNDAY...

1022 MB SURFACE HIGH OVER SOUTHWEST VA EARLY THIS MORNING FORECAST
TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST TO THE CAROLINA COAST DURING THE DAY WITH
GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS MOST OF THE DAY. SEVERAL WEAK SHORT-
WAVES TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTHWEST BY LATE AFTERNOON BUT WITH THE
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION REMAINING CONFINED TO THE EXTREME
SOUTHWEST COUNTY WARNING AREA. TEMPS WILL BE PLEASANT AND NEAR
EARLY MAY CLIMO NORMALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SUNDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST WHILE A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DRIFTS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHERLY
FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BRING WARM MOIST AIR
INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM 5F-10F ABOVE NORMAL WITH
UPPER 70S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER TO MID 80S EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COOL POOL WILL PROVIDE THE INSTABILITY TO HAVE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON. STEERING FLOW WILL BE WEAK
EACH DAY...SO ANY STORMS FORMING WILL BE SLOW MOVERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...

TREND OF WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATER HALF OF THE
COMING WORKWEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DRIFTS EASTWARD FROM THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTY. WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON A TROPICAL
LOW PUSHING NORTH FROM THE CARIBBEAN ON WEDNESDAY TO STALL OFF THE
COAST OF THE CAROLINAS. WHILE THIS FEATURE WILL NOT AFFECT OUR
WEATHER DIRECTLY WITH RAINFALL...THE NORTHEASTERLY WINDFLOW AROUND
THE LOW WILL DRAW A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
ON THURSDAY...BRINGING DRIER AIR IN FROM NEW ENGLAND FOR THE END OF
THE WORKWEEK.

WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD
ON THURSDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA...AND APPEARS THAT
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT A FEW STRONG STORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. UPPER LEVEL
WINDS REMAIN WEAK...SO SLOW CELL MOVEMENT/LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH DAY. EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS OF MID/UPPER 70S FOR
THE MOUNTAINS AND LOW 80S FOR THE PIEDMONT EACH DAY...WITH LOWS IN
THE 50S.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON FRIDAY WILL BRING DRIER MORE STABLE AIR
FOR MOST OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH PORTIONS OF THE HIGHLANDS OF NORTH
CAROLINA THROUGH SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...AREAS WEST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...WILL LINGER IN THE MORE UNSTABLE AIR OUTSIDE OF
THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE...AND WILL STILL BE SUBJECT TO
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. EASTERLY WINDFLOW WILL MAKE FOR
SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS...GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER 70S AREAWIDE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL HOLD IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT SUNDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE REGION WILL MOVE EAST TODAY WITH WINDS SHIFTING SLOWLY
TOWARD SOUTHWEST BUT REMAINING VERY LIGHT. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS
EXPECTED LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AS A WEAK SHORT-WAVE DROPS
SOUTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY LEADING TO SOME CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE BLUE RIDGE AND SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

NOTE...THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT THE ASOS AT KBLF CONTINUES TO
BE SPORADICALLY OUT OF SERVICE. REPAIRS MAY NOT BE POSSIBLE UNTIL
THE END OF MAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH AMD NOT SKED APPENDED TO BLF TAF.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING RIVER VALLEY FOG
IN THE TYPICAL LOCATIONS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT.

SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE ON TUESDAY...WHICH WOULD
YIELD MVFR CONDITIONS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AS A BACK DOOR FRONT ENTERS THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT WILL LIMIT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY SYNOPTIC-SCALE
FORCING THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 130 PM EDT SATURDAY...

THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT THE BLUEFIELD...KBLF...ASOS WILL ALTERNATE
BETWEEN AVAILABLE AND UNAVAILABLE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...PC
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...KK/PC
EQUIPMENT...AMS



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