Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 040402
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1102 PM CDT Sun May 3 2015

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

Stratus is beginning to develop across the Hill Country and is
forecast to spread north through the next few hours, resulting in
MVFR ceilings at all TAF sites. VFR conditions will return to all
sites by late morning or early afternoon Monday. South to
southeast winds of 10 to 15 knots are forecast through the next 24
hours. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be
possible Monday afternoon, but confidence remains too low to
include in the current TAF package.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 819 PM CDT Sun May 3 2015/

UPDATE...
Thunderstorms developed along the TX-NM border this evening from
the Panhandle south into the Davis Mountains. This activity
continues to move in a general northeast direction but will weaken
as they cross the Permian Basin. The 00z KMAF raob indicated only
a weak cap in place, but this cap increases in strength farther
east. A much strong capping inversion was present on the KDRT and
KFWD profiles. CINH will increase with the loss of diurnal
heating, but some of this convection may sneak into the southwest
portion of the CWA. Slight chance PoPs were included overnight,
mainly southwest of a Big Lake to Sonora line. Otherwise, only
minor changes were made to the inherited forecast based on recent
surface observations.

An unsettled weather pattern will persist across the region
through at least the next week as general southwesterly flow
aloft develops in advance of a series of shortwave troughs progged
to move across the Four Corners region. The southwest winds aloft
will advect an EML across the area, helping to maintain rather
steep mid-level lapse rates. the persistent southerly flow will
promote low-level moistening and the dryline will encroach on the
western portion of the CWA several times this week. While the
potential for severe weather will exist most days this week, the
greatest threat look to be on Tuesday.

Johnson

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 605 PM CDT Sun May 3 2015/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Stratus is forecast to develop at KSOA, KBBD, and KJCT around 05z,
then spread north to KSJT and KABI between 06z and 07z, resulting in
MVFR ceilings. VFR ceilings are forecast to return to all sites by
late morning or early afternoon Monday. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms currently over West Texas are forecast to remain to
the west of the TAF sites overnight. Isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms will be possible Monday afternoon, but confidence
is not high enough to include in the current TAF package. Expect
south to southeast winds of 10 to 15 knots through the next 24
hours.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 PM CDT Sun May 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Monday)

Last quiet period before what will hopefully be a wetter week coming
up across West Central Texas. Low level moisture has returned, with
dewpoints in the mid 50s this afternoon. Dewpoints in the 60s are in
place across portions of the hill country. As southerly winds
continue, this better moisture will advect into the area and help
keep overnight temperatures warmer than they were this morning. Will
continue the forecast of low to mid 60s areawide.

For Monday, more cloud cover for the day and the latest TTU WRF
suggests some scattered warm advection showers and storms across
much of the area. This should be fairly brief and light, but did
boost PoPs slightly to account for it. Afternoon highs will be kept
down a couple degrees by the cloud cover as well.

LONG TERM...
(Monday Night-Sunday)

Look for chances for thunderstorms to continue through next
weekend! It will be very difficult to pin point the exact time and
location for each convective episode.

A few thunderstorms forming along the dryline across far West
Texas tomorrow evening could move east into Crockett County
tomorrow night. But Tuesday looks to be the best day for
thunderstorms for West Central Texas as a strong upper level
disturbance moves across the area. Have continued 50-65 Pops for
Tuesday through Tuesday night. A few of these storms could become
severe and produce large hail and damaging winds with 0-6km bulk
shear of 40-45 kts and MUCAPE values approaching 2000 J/KG. The
best lift should move across West Central Texas after 00Z/7PM
Tuesday.

We should see a break on Wednesday with just a few showers or
thunderstorms. Then scattered thunderstorms strong to severe
thunderstorms possible Thursday through Friday as upper level
disturbances in the southwest flow aloft move northeast and
interact with the dryline. A better chance for thunderstorms will
continue for next Saturday as another shortwave trough approaches.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  61  81  62  76  63 /   5  20  30  60  60
San Angelo  64  83  62  77  64 /  10  20  40  60  50
Junction  64  82  63  78  65 /  10  20  30  50  60

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Daniels




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