Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS62 KTAE 060819
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
419 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...

A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF COAST REGION AND A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EAST OF FLORIDA WILL CONTINUE TO
MAINTAIN PERIODS OF CLOUD COVER OVER THE FORECAST AREA IN THE NEAR
TERM. IT WILL BE ANOTHER SEASONABLY WARM DAY WITH DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURES CREEPING UP ANOTHER COUPLE DEGREES FROM YESTERDAY.
THE GFS...NUMEROUS WRF RUNS...AND THE HRRR MODEL ALL INDICATE SOME
QPF AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND POSSIBLY ADJACENT SOUTHWEST GEORGIA THIS
AFTERNOON...SO HAVE ADDED MENTION IN THE FORECAST...AND SHAVED A
COUPLE DEGREES FROM THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY.


.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY]...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA WILL MOVE
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT AFFECTS ON THE
LOCAL AREA. THE 00Z GFS DOES SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MOISTURE
WRAPPING AROUND THE SYSTEM INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
ON FRIDAY...BUT THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THIS WILL MAINLY BE
IN THE FORM OF CLOUD COVER WITH PRECIP REMAINING EAST OF THE AREA.

FOR THE REST OF THE AREA...A FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN PLACE WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 80S
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS THE AREA RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
MID 60S.


.LONG TERM [FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...

THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS THE SUBTROPICAL JET BECOMES BETTER DEFINED AGAIN OFF THE
WEST COAST AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN STATES
MOVES EASTWARD. LOCALLY...A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
EXPECTED TO RETURN BY THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AVERAGING A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY] THE COMBINATION OF A SLIGHT EAST TO
NORTHEAST WIND AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY STILL MOSTLY AT OR BELOW 90
PERCENT SHOULD PREVENT ANY FOG FROM FORMING THIS MORNING...HOWEVER
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS PRODUCING A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR OR IFR AT ONE OR TWO AIRPORTS. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AGAIN TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE APPEARS TO
BE A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS BRIEFLY IMPACTING A FEW
AIRPORTS THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO
LOW FOR MENTION IN THE TAFS.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS TODAY WITH FAIRLY LOW WINDS
AND SEAS CONTINUING FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MEET RED FLAG
WARNING CRITERIA THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...ALTHOUGH THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 30 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE IN
SOME AREAS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. DEEP MIXING AND WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE DISPERSION VALUES TO BE HIGH THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT NOT QUITE AS HIGH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

WITH NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST AND RIVERS
RECEDING...THERE ARE NO HYDROLOGY CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   88  63  89  61  89 /  20  10  10  10  10
PANAMA CITY   83  65  80  65  81 /  20  10   0   0   0
DOTHAN        85  62  85  61  87 /  10  10   0   0  10
ALBANY        85  59  86  60  88 /  10  10   0   0  10
VALDOSTA      87  62  86  61  86 /  10  10  10  10  10
CROSS CITY    88  60  88  61  89 /  20  10   0   0  10
APALACHICOLA  83  67  82  66  83 /  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...TD
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM...DVD
AVIATION...TD
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...TD
HYDROLOGY...DVD



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