Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 030741
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
341 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY - MONDAY)...
WEAK UPPER/MID LEVEL TROUGHING WILL HOLD IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH MONDAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES IN JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRANSLATE TO NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY WINDS
CONTINUING THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...WHICH WILL BE ENHANCED
BY THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE AND RESULT IN EASTERLY NOCTURNAL
SURGES. DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 50S THIS
AFTERNOON...ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER DRY FEELING AFTERNOON...BUT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO BUILD ON MONDAY ALLOWING
DEW POINTS TO CLIMB A FEW DEGREES. THAT SAID...SKIES WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED TODAY OR
MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID
80S...WITH LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

.MID/LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY)...
MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE WEAK
MID-LEVEL TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA
STRAITS TUESDAY AND THEN  BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND LINGER OFF THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. AND FLORIDA EAST COAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OUT IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
WILL RIDGE WEST INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES TUESDAY WITH THE EASTERLY
FLOW BRINGING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE LEADING TO ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHERN INTERIOR ZONES. TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP A WAVE/AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EAST OF FLORIDA AND
THEN MEANDER IT OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND FLORIDA EAST COAST DURING
THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF THIS SYSTEM
VARIES WIDELY BETWEEN THE MODELS...BUT FOR WEDNESDAY WE SHOULD STILL
HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND TO KEEP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS IN
THE FORECAST BEFORE SOME DRIER AIR SPREADS SOUTH ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THIS SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEK LOWERING RAIN CHANCES SOME.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT THE PERIOD NEAR NORMAL THEN NEAR TO A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE COASTAL WATERS WILL STRENGTHEN AND
HOLD IN PLACE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...WITH
NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY WINDS CONTINUING. EASTERLY SURGES WILL
BRING WIND SPEEDS UP TO EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS EACH OF THE NEXT
COUPLE EVENINGS...AND MAY EVEN APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS AT TIMES
OVERNIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX SLIGHTLY DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DRY AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN SEVERAL HOURS OF CRITICAL RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH ERC VALUES ARE
ON THE HIGH SIDE...SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE JUST
SHY OF TRIGGERING A RED FLAG WARNING. HUMIDITY WILL BUILD MONDAY
AND TUESDAY AND PRECLUDE ANY FURTHER RED FLAG CONCERNS THIS WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  86  64  85  66 /   0   0  10   0
FMY  86  62  86  67 /   0   0  10  10
GIF  84  61  83  64 /   0   0  10  10
SRQ  87  63  87  66 /   0   0  10  10
BKV  85  58  84  59 /   0   0  10   0
SPG  84  69  84  69 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...18/FLEMING
LONG TERM...69/CLOSE
DECISION SUPPORT...69/CLOSE


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