Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 050429
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
930 PM MST MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WILL LINGER NORTH OF TUCSON OVERNIGHT WITH
CLEARING SKIES ELSEWHERE. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE NORTH OF TUCSON
ON TUCSON. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL WEDNESDAY INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. EXPECT BREEZY TO PERHAPS WINDY CONDITIONS TO OCCUR
THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL THIS WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. THE STRONGEST CELLS
THIS EVENING WERE LOCATED NW OF SANTA ROSA IN CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY
WITH ANOTHER ONE NEAR AVRA VALLEY. LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH
THE STRONGEST CELLS HAVE BEEN IN THE QUARTER TO HALF INCH RANGE.

THE UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR TODAYS ACTIVITY WAS LOCATED NEAR
PRESCOTT VIA 8 PM WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND LIFTING TO THE NORTH. AS
THIS UPPER LOW LIFTS NNE OVERNIGHT...MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT A
WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FEATURE WAS SOUTH
OF YUMA COUNTY AND AS IT MOVES EAST OVERNIGHT IT WILL KEEP A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM. WILL MAKE SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST ON THE MID-EVENING UPDATE.

 &&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 06/06Z. SCTD -SHRA/ISOLD TS MNLY E OF A KCGZ-
KOLS LINE. CLOUD BASES WILL BE 5-10K FT AGL. SFC WIND LESS THAN 10
KTS EXCEPT NEAR SHOWERS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT
ACROSS EASTERN HALF OF SE ARIZONA. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN CONTINUE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING MAINLY
ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS.

MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND ALONG WITH ELEVATED WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY AFTERNOON WINDS.
AT THIS TIME...THE STRONGEST AND MOST WIDESPREAD WINDS LOOK TO OCCUR
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...MORE LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS. THE COMBINATION OF
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
LOCALIZED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AND WIDESPREAD CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY FROM TUCSON SOUTHWARD AND
EASTWARD.

&&

.CLIMATE...FOR THE FIRST TIME IN THE WEATHER RECORDS FOR
TUCSON...RAINFALL WAS RECORDED AT THE OFFICIAL RECORDING LOCATION
ON MAY 2ND...3RD AND 4TH.

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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