Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FNUS73 KAPX 051211
FWSAPX

SPOT FORECAST FOR DEER RD...DNR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
811 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1200 EDT ON MAY 05.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE THE SHIFTING WIND
FROM THE LAKE BREEZE. IT LOOKS LIKE THE WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT
AROUND THE TIME OF IGNITION BEFORE THEY TURN WEST AT 4-8 MPH
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...THE MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY SHOULD BE BETWEEN 20-25 PERCENT...WITH A RISK OF THE
HUMIDITY DROPPING INTO THE 15-20 PERCENT RANGE BETWEEN 3 AND 6 PM.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........65 AT IGNITION...MAX 66.
RH..................24 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 22 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTH AT 5 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE
                    LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST 5 TO 7 MPH EARLY
                    IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING LIGHT EARLY IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 7 TO 14 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......100-400 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5200 FT AGL.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 5.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (700) AT IGNITION. MAX...EXCELLENT
                    (800).

TIME (EDT)      1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........55  55  54  50  47
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TEMP............65  66  66  65  65
RH..............24  22  22  23  25
20 FT WIND DIR..S   S   SW  SW  S
20 FT WIND SPD..5   3   2   1   2
20 FT WIND GUST.10  5   5       5
HAINES INDEX....5   5   5   5   5
SMOKE DISP......700 800 800 700 600

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 45.
RH..................MAX 88 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST 5 TO 6 MPH AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........44  41  39  42  47  52  57  62  65  65  67  69
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TEMP............64  62  60  56  52  49  46  46  45  45  45  45
RH..............29  36  42  51  59  63  71  73  79  82  83  85
20 FT WIND DIR..S   S   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT WIND SPD..2   3   3   4   4   4   5   5   6   6   6   5
20 FT WIND GUST.5   5   5   10  10  10  10  10

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    SPRINKLES EARLY IN THE MORNING.
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 71.
RH..................MIN 47 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE
                    MORNING BECOMING LIGHT...THEN BECOMING
                    SOUTHEAST 5 TO 6 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND
                    AFTERNOON.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).........70     72     79     87     94     85
WEATHER COV.....       CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TEMP............45     48     52     60     69     71
RH..............87     80     74     63     50     47
20 FT WIND......SE 5   E 4    SE 5   SE 6   SE 6   SE 5
20 FT WIND GUST.       5      10     10     10     10

$$
FORECASTER...JEFF LUTZ
REQUESTED BY...DON KLINGLER
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20150505.DEERR.01/APX



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