Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA

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000
FNUS76 KMTR 310306
FWSMTR

SPOT FORECAST FOR CREWS RIDGE RX...USFS-LOS PADRES FOREST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
806 PM PDT MON MAR 30 2015

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0930 PDT ON MARCH 31.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...GUSTY NORTHWEST RIDGE TOP WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...

.DISCUSSION...A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA ON TUESDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL MAINLY BE DRY BUT THE
LATEST MODEL PROJECTIONS PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE IN THE
VICINITY OF CHEWS RIDGE AS THE MARINE LAYER WILL GET SQUEEZED OUT ALONG
THE COASTAL RANGE. OF MORE IMPORTANCE WILL BE THE VERY STRONG WINDS AROUND
5000 FEET AND HIGHER. ACCORDING TO THE COORDINATES PROVIDED THE ACTUAL BURN
LOCATION MAY BE SOMEWHAT SHELTERED FROM THE STRONGEST WINDS BUT BE
AWARE THAT GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE BLOWING ON THE WINDWARD SIDE OF
CHEWS RIDGE WITH STRONG TRANSPORT WINDS ALOFT LEADING TO POTENTIAL FOR
LONG RANGE SPOTTING.  WINDS WILL EASE SLIGHTLY BY NIGHTFALL BUT MODERATE
NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT THE 5000 FOOT ELEVATION WITH COOL OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE NIGHT TIME RECOVERY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER BUT
STILL MODERATE IN STRENGTH ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE STRONGER NORTH WINDS RETURN
BY THURSDAY.

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. A MORNING SHOWER OR DRIZZLE
                    IS POSSIBLE AS WELL...ABOUT A 10-20% CHANCE.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....49-54.
MIN HUMIDITY........25-35 PERCENT BY LATE AFTERNOON IF CLEARING OCCURS.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....NORTHWEST 5-10 MPH GUSTS TO 15 MPH.
WIND (20 FT)........BREEZY. NORTHWEST WINDS 12 TO 25 MPH. GUSTS UP
                    TO 35 MPH.
CWR.................5 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
MARINE LAYER........BURN SITE WILL BE ABOVE THE MARINE LAYER.
MIXING HEIGHT.......ABOUT 2000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....37-42.
MAX HUMIDITY........65 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....NORTH 6-12 MPH GUSTS 15-18 MPH TIL SUNSET THEN
                    NORTH 4-8 MPH OVERNIGHT.
WIND (20 FT)........BREEZY. NORTH WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH. GUSTS UP TO
                    30 MPH POSSIBLE ALONG THE RIDGE LINES.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
MARINE LAYER........0.
MIXING HEIGHT.......LOWERING TO NEAR THE SURFACE OVERNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 8-18 MPH.

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....50-55.
MIN HUMIDITY........22-32 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....NORTH/NORTHWEST 4-8 MPH GUSTS 12 MPH.
WIND (20 FT)........BREEZY. NORTH WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
                    AROUND 30 MPH.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
MARINE LAYER........NONE AT THE BURN SITE.
MIXING HEIGHT.......AROUND 2000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...R_WALBRUN
REQUESTED BY...HAROLD COOK
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20150331.CREWS.01/MTR
.EMAIL MAGOOCOOK@YAHOO.COM






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