Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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AGPN40 KWNM 271534
MIMPAC

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N PACIFIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
834 AM PDT MON APR 27 2015

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH PACIFIC N OF 30N AND E OF 150W.

IN THE NEAR TERM PZ5 WTRS WL BE ON THE E SIDE OF A FAST MOVG RPDLY
DPNG LOW WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PASS JUST NW OF WA WTRS TONIGHT.
PREFER THE STRONGER AND SLGTLY SLOWER 00Z GFS WHICH IS MORE IN LN
WITH 00Z ECMWF/UKMET BRINGING STG GALES TO NW WA WTRS TONIGHT. A
12Z SHIP RPT WITH NW 35 KT ON W SIDE OF LOW INDICATES SPRT FOR
INITL INTENSITY AS STG OR EVEN A LTL STRONGER THAN 06Z GFS. WITH
GFS PUSHING SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE LOW LVL CONDS INTO PZ5 WTRS WITH
PASSAGE OF LOW...THE PREVIOUSLY POPULATED 00Z GFS 30M WNDS LOOK
RSNBL.

OFF CA CONDS HAVE BEEN TRENDING DOWN AS OFSHR HIGH CONTS TO
WKN...WITH WNDS DOWN TO 25 KT OR LESS. 00Z/06Z GFS 30M WNDS LOOK
REPRESENTATIVE. NLY WND REGIME EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THRU PERIOD AS
EPAC RDG REBUILDS AFTER PASSAGE OF LOW PRES TO THE N TONIGHT INTO
TUE.

APART FM SOME DIFFERENCES IN NEWER 06Z GFS HNDLG LOW PASSING W AND
THEN N OPF PZ5 WTRS...GFS REMAINS CONSISTENT THRU FCST PRD AND
CLOSE TO OTHER GLOBAL MDLS. WILL MAINTAIN GALE HEADLINES WITH MDT
CONFDC MAINLY INNER ZONES N OF PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS AND BY FRI AS
GALES EXPAND...SPREADING TO PORTIONS OF OUTER ZONES N OF PIGEON PT
BY FRI...ALTHO CONFDC IS LOWER FOR OUTER ZONES DUE TO SMALL
PORTIONS OF THOSE ZONES TO BE AFFECTED. CURRENT WND GRIDS BASED ON
00Z GFS WL BE USED FOR MRNG UPDATE.

SEAS...06Z ENP WW3 APPRS WELL INITIALIZED AND WITH GFS
CONSISTENT...IS CLOSE TO PREVIOUS RUN. WILL NOT REPOPULATE WITH
06Z WW3 SINCE 00Z RUN IS BASED ON DEEPER AND SLOWER 00Z GFS AND
CLOSER TO 00Z ECMWF WAM PARTICULARLY OVR NRN WTRS LATER TODAY INTO
TUE.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AN INLAND LOW PRES TROF OVER SRN CALIFORNIA CONTINUES TO COMBINE
WITH HIGH PRES W OF THE PZ6 WATERS TO PRODUCE NW WINDS UP TO 30 KT
ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE PZ6 WATERS. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH
TONIGHT TO ABOUT 25 KT BY EARLY MON. BY LATE TUE NIGHT THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL SHIFT N TO THE AREA W OF POINT REYES. MINIMAL
GALES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NRN AND CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE PZ6 WATERS BY WED AND THEN CONTINUE INTO FRI AS
THE THERMAL TROF STRENGTHENS ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST. FARTHER
N...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE PZ5
WATERS MON NIGHT WITH GALES ALONG THE FRONT AND STORM CONDITIONS
JUST NW OF THE WASHINGTON OFFSHORE WATERS. CONDITIONS WILL THEN
DIMINISH ACROSS THE PZ5 WATERS BY TUE. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL THEN CROSS THE PZ5 WATERS WED. CURRENT WARNINGS LOOK
REASONABLE AND FEW CHANGES SHOULD BE NEEDED ON THE NEXT OFFSHORE
FORECAST.

THE ENP LOOKS REASONABLE WITH THE SEAS AND WILL BE FOLLOWED FAIRLY
CLOSELY DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.

EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.

.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.PZ5 WASHINGTON/OREGON WATERS...
.PZZ800...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO CAPE SHOALWATER...
     GALE TONIGHT.
.PZZ900...OUTER WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO CAPE SHOALWATER...
     GALE TONIGHT INTO TUE.
.PZZ905...OUTER WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO CAPE LOOKOUT...
     GALE TONIGHT.
.PZZ910...OUTER WATERS FROM CAPE LOOKOUT TO FLORENCE OR...
     GALE TONIGHT.
.PZZ915...OUTER WATERS FROM FLORENCE OR TO POINT ST. GEORGE...
     GALE TONIGHT.

.PZ6 CALIFORNIA WATERS...
.PZZ820...INNER WATERS FROM POINT ST. GEORGE TO POINT ARENA...
     GALE POSSIBLE WED NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT.
.PZZ920...OUTER WATERS FROM POINT ST. GEORGE TO POINT ARENA...
     GALE POSSIBLE THU INTO FRI.
.PZZ825...INNER WATERS FROM POINT ARENA TO PIGEON POINT...
     GALE POSSIBLE WED INTO FRI.
.PZZ925...OUTER WATERS FROM POINT ARENA TO PIGEON POINT...
     GALE POSSIBLE THU INTO FRI.
.PZZ830...INNER WATERS FROM PIGEON POINT TO POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS...
     GALE POSSIBLE WED NIGHT INTO THU.

$$

.FORECASTER BANCROFT/NOLT. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.


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