Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS01 KWNS 180052
SWODY1
SPC AC 180051

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0751 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

VALID 180100Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT
PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER SOUTH TX...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS
AND CENTRAL GULF COAST...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS
AND ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH TEXAS.  THREATS WILL INCLUDE LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES.

...CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS...

UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MIGRATE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS CO TO NEAR THE
FRONT RANGE BY SUNRISE.  SELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SHOULD THEREFORE
PERSIST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND CONVECTIVE THREAT SHOULD PERSIST
WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  00Z SOUNDING FROM DDC EXHIBITS
SUBSTANTIAL VEERING PROFILES AND SPEED SHEAR WITH HEIGHT AND MORE
THAN ADEQUATE BUOYANCY FOR ROBUST UPDRAFTS.  ISOLATED SUPERCELLS AND
PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
OTHERWISE...LARGE HAIL IS THE PRIMARY THREAT.

FARTHER SOUTH...DRY LINE HAS RETREATED WWD ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE
AND CONVECTION IS DEEPENING ALONG THIS MOISTURE SURGE.  HAVE
ADJUSTED MGRL SEVERE THREAT WWD TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS ACTIVITY.  REF
MCD #345 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

...SOUTH TX...

WELL ORGANIZED MCS HAS PROGRESSED ACROSS SCNTRL TX INTO THE UPPER TX
COASTAL REGION.  TRAILING THIS ACTIVITY...SCT SUPERCELLS EXTEND SWWD
INVOF WIND SHIFT TOWARD WEBB COUNTY.  GIVEN THE UPWARD TRENDS IN
DEEP CONVECTION IT APPEARS SEVERE THREAT WILL LINGER ACROSS THIS
REGION WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS.  00Z SOUNDING FROM CRP SUPPORTS
THIS WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STRONG SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR.
ISOLATED TORNADOES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY.

..DARROW.. 04/18/2015



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