Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS03 KWNS 180705
SWODY3
SPC AC 180704

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0204 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC...CAROLINAS AND SE GA...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL
APPALACHIAN MTNS...MID-ATLANTIC...CAROLINAS AND ERN GULF COAST
STATES...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE CAROLINAS AND
GEORGIA.

...MID-ATLANTIC/CAROLINAS/SE GA...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE MS VALLEY
ON MONDAY AS A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CNTRL
APPALACHIAN MTNS. AT THE SFC...A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
MOVE INTO THE FOOTHILLS OF THE APPALACHIAN MTNS WITH A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE OH AN TN VALLEYS. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S F
FROM SRN VA SWD INTO THE CAROLINAS SHOULD RESULT IN POCKETS OF
MODERATE INSTABILITY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ALONG THE CORRIDOR OF INSTABILITY. GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
FROM RICHMOND VA SSWWD TO COLUMBIA SC AT 21Z MONDAY SHOW MLCAPE IN
THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES. ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR MAY BE
MARGINAL FOR SUPERCELLS...THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT MULTICELL
DEVELOPMENT WITH WIND-DAMAGE POTENTIAL. HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS IN AREAS THAT HEAT UP THE MOST. A
MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT MAY ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL
APPALACHIAN MTNS MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT WEAKER INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP
ANY POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL RELATIVELY ISOLATED
THERE.

..BROYLES.. 04/18/2015




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